WEEKLY OIL REPORT
October 30, 2020

INDEX

• Price
• Production
• Economy
• Demand
• Storage
• Venezuela

PRICE

The month of October is closing¹with strong losses: the Brent and WTI markers were quoted at $37.38 and $35.31 per barrel, upholding an unstable behavior with a downward trend.

OIL PRICE BEHAVIOR
BRENT AND WTI
(October 2020)

Prices are reacting downwards due to the expansion of COVID-19 in the U.S. –which has not yet managed to emerge from the «first wave» of the pandemic– as well as to the unexpected impact of the violent growth of the «second wave» of COVID-19 in the major economies of Europe, which are returning to restrictions on movement and economic activity, all of which is distancing the prospects of recovery for both the economy and the demand towards the end of this year.

On the other hand, the unexpected ceasefire agreement in Libya²that took place last October 23^rd and the lifting of the blockade on oil production, has allowed the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) to lift the «force majeure«³and restart its exports, increasing the supply of crude oil on October 27^th by 690,000 barrels a day.

These events,  and the increase⁴in oil inventories, especially in the Cushing of Oklahoma, place the oil market once again in the scenario of «over-supply» of crude oil that characterized the first quarter of the year, which casts doubts on the decision of OPEC+ to «make more flexible» the production cuts as of last August and for January 2021.

The behavior of prices after the August «relaxation».

After the collapse of the oil market due to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia in the first quarter of the year, oil began since May a sustained recovery of its prices with the coming into effect of the OPEC+ cuts; this trend continued until August, when the «flexibilization»/“relaxation” of the same coming into effect.

 PRICE OF OIL
(January – October 2020)

From May to mid-August prices remained high and reached⁵their highest price of the year on August 17^th, due to the 9 million barrel a day cut agreed by OPEC+, as well as the high level of compliance.

However, as a result of the internal needs and pressures of the member countries, as of August the production cut is made more flexible by 2 million barrels per day, under the premise that from the second half of the year on, the pandemic originated by COVID-19 would be controlled enough to allow the lifting of movement restrictions until a vaccine was available and, consequently, to achieve a recovery of the economy and oil demand that would support the price as of the third and fourth quarters of the year.

This premise was only fulfilled in Asia, where –after controlling the spread of the virus– the Chinese economy had a modest recovery, which sustained the demand of the region.

However, the magnitude and expansion of COVID-19 in the U.S. and the inability of authorities to contain the pandemic have dramatically impacted the world’s leading economy.

Regarding Europe, the expansion of the pandemic was brought under control at the end of the second quarter of the year, allowing the lifting of the restrictions during the summer, thus stopping the fall of the economy and creating the expectation of a recovery for the third and fourth quarters of this year. However, starting in September and particularly in October, the «second wave» of the COVID-19 hit the main European economies again, especially those of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, which slowed down the stabilization process achieved in August by returning to the restrictions on mobility, so it is estimated that the process of economic recovery and demand will occur in 2021, later than expected by the various analysts and institutions.

Although the oil market reacted positively to OPEC+’s intervention by reducing its supply of crude oil –which made it possible to halt the fall in prices observed in March and April– no recovery of the economy or of the demand for oil can be seen in the short term; that is why oil prices, after their recovery in May, have decreased again since August.

At the end of October, the Brent and WTI quotations have suffered a loss of 24 and 20 dollars per barrel when compared to the beginning of the year, which represents a loss of 36% and 33% of their value, respectively.

Prices in September and October have been marked by instability, fluctuating with a downward trend, coinciding with the relaxation of OPEC+ cuts and the capacity of other producers –especially the United States, Canada and Norway– to stop the fall in their production, stabilize or achieve increases.

This downward price trend continues, despite the fact that the hurricane season has affected the drilling infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico in September and October, with the passage of Hurricanes Laura and Marco in September, and Hurricanes Sally, Delta and Zeta in October, which forced authorities to suspend production activities, resulting in an accumulated loss, as of October 29^th, of approximately 33.1 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Office of Environmental Safety and Compliance (BSEE)⁶. These impacts have supported the price of oil, especially WTI, preventing a more pronounced decline.

October, «second wave» and Libya; Prices down.

Oil prices continued to show a downward trend during October, after having recovered from September’s losses.

On September 27^th, the Brent and WTI markers were at 42.43 and 40.60 dollars per barrel, respectively; then they suffered a drop of 7% and 8% and were quoted on October 2^nd at 39.27 and 37.25 dollars per barrel, respectively.

As of October 2^nd, prices were supported by the effects of Hurricanes Sally and Delta in the Gulf of Mexico and also by the expectations created in the market because of the upcoming elections in the U.S., to be quoted on October 14^th at $ 43.16 a barrel for the Brent and October 19 at $ 41.46 a barrel for the WTI.

Then both scores fell again, until this Friday’s quotes. A drop of 15% and 16% for Brent and WTI, respectively, compared to their highest prices of the month.

BRENT PRICES
(September-October 2020)

WTI PRICES
(September-October 2020)

As it can be seen, the unstable behavior of the prices has the characteristic «saw» shape, fluctuating within the price band reached from June between 38 and 43 dollars a barrel, to now be located in a band that fluctuates between 36 and 43 dollars a barrel.

As we have indicated in previous Oil Reports, despite the great effort made by the OPEC+ countries to reduce the supply of oil, this is not enough to stabilize the market, as demand continues to be extraordinarily affected by the fall in the world economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, an effect that extends beyond what was initially foreseen.

The premise of demand recovery for the 3^rd and 4^th quarters of this year, which supported OPEC+’s decision to make production cuts more flexible starting August has not been fulfilled, except in China. On the contrary, with the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. and the «second wave» hitting Europe, the possibilities of recovery of the economy during the last two quarters of the year as expected are far away.

According to OPEC’s analysis, in its October MOMR, it is estimated that the economy’s recovery will be more delayed and that the effects of COVID-19 on demand will extend throughout 2021, even if the vaccine is obtained.

The uncertainty regarding the prolongation of the pandemic and the recovery of the demand, the high levels of inventories and the greater supply of oil, place the market in a structure of contango and super contango, remaining at the current levels until the end of the year in the best scenario.

This market situation will probably force the OPEC+ countries to review their policy of flexible production cuts initiated in August, especially with regard to January 2021, when, according to the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) agreements⁷, oil production is planned to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day compared to the 7.7 million barrel per day cut that has been in effect since August.

OPEC Basket

OPEC crude basket reflects an unstable behavior, similar to the Brent and WTI markers, which reflects significant falls in its price during September (from $46 a barrel to $39 a barrel) due to the effect of the relaxation of the OPEC+ cuts. In October it recovered its value to fluctuate again around 41 dollars a barrel, quoted⁸on October 29^th at 37.12 dollars a barrel.

PRICE OF THE OPEP BASKET
(September-October 2020)

Future Prices

According to the EIA’s report “This Week in Petroleum”⁹, dated October 28^th, 2020, the reduction in global demand for oil will continue to strengthen the structure of contango and, in turn, to drive the increase in global oil stocks.

Futures prices have increased during October, according to the same EIA report, closing WTI contracts, as of October 27^th, between $39.57 and $40.46 per barrel.

The price differential between the Brent and WTI has narrowed considerably, according to the EIA’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” report (STEO)¹⁰, reaching on October 27^tha minimum of $1.73 per barrel for the last four months, in addition to the narrowest differential since 2016.

PRODUCTION

World crude oil production increased by 0.7% month-on-month in September, according to preliminary data published by OPEC in its monthly report for October¹¹, for a total of 85.55 million barrels of oil per day, meaning a drop of 8.73 million barrels per day, or 9.26%, compared to a production of 94.28 million barrels per day in January 2020.

WORLD PRODUCTION AND OPEP+
(January-September 2020)

The impact of OPEC+ cuts introduced in May and the relaxation of these measures three months later can be seen. OPEC+ countries contribute to a total production of 36.82 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to 43% of the world’s production, being, without a doubt, the «swift producers» of the world oil market. Their decision to regulate production is definitely the decisive factor impacting world oil supply.

With a 4.3% drop in the world’s economy, a demand level of 91 million barrels a day, and the «second wave» of COVID-19, OPEC+ countries must closely monitor market fundamentals in view of an increase in world oil supply due to the recovery of production in the U.S. and the easing of the OPEC+ cuts implemented last August and scheduled again for January 2021.

At the OPEC+ ministerial videoconference¹²held on October 19^th, after confirming the compliance with the production cut agreements, the ministers maintained a flexible policy with regards to making cuts –an increase of 1.9 million barrels of oil per day by January 2021, which would place the new OPEC+ cut level at 5.8 million barrels per day.

However, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak was cautious and recognized¹³how difficult it is to bring the recovery in oil demand to the levels seen prior to the pandemic crisis and the uncertainty about how to achieve that recovery.

OPEC+ announced that at the next full meeting on November 30^th the agreement cuts, which are scheduled for 2021, will be reviewed¹⁴.

For its part, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns¹⁵that the market would have difficulty in «absorbing» an increase in production.

The EIA, in its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO) report from October 6^th, forecasts¹⁶a production of 98.83 million barrels of oil per day by 2021, a difference of more than one million barrels from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) projection of 97.2 million barrels per day¹⁷.

OPEC

OPEC production for September was 24.1 million barrels of oil per day, representing 28.2% of world oil production and maintaining August levels, according to data from secondary sources published in OPEC’s October MOMR¹⁸.

OPEC PRODUCTION
(According to secondary sources, September 2020)

OPEC DoC+ countries

OPEC-10, the 10 countries part of the organization that are signatories of the OPEC+ DoC agreement and that are participating in the production cuts –Angola, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Congo, United Arab Emirates, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Iraq, Kuwait and Nigeria– make for a joint production of 21.6 million barrels of oil per day, which represents 89.6% of OPEC and 58.7% of OPEC+.

For their part, the Persian Gulf monarchies and Iraq, with 17,476 million barrels a day, represent 72.5% of the OPEC production, 81% of OPEC-10, and 47.5% of the OPEC+ production.

Although the total OPEC production has remained the same since August, the United Arab Emirates, which had an overproduction of 115 thousand barrels that month, cut their production by 239 thousand barrels per day in September, with an additional cut of 57 thousand barrels per day from their production cut quota, to compensate for the excess produced in August.

Saudi Arabia slightly increased its production in the same period, approaching 9 million barrels of oil per day. The production of the rest of the OPEC-10 countries has remained the same since August.

Countries not participating in OPEC+ cuts

The countries that do not participate in the OPEC+ cuts: Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, make for a joint production of 2.5 million barrels a day, 10.37% of the Organization’s total production; of this volume, Iran produces 1.96 million barrels a day, 78.4%.

Iran.

U.S. sanctions continue to affect Iran’s oil production, which has fallen from 3.55 million barrels a day in 2018 to 1.96 million barrels a day this past September, a fall of 1.59 million barrels a day, or 44.77%, in two years.

The possible victory of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, in the next elections for the U.S. presidency, has the market in the expectation that the new administration, among other decisions to be made in the international arena, will resume¹⁹the commitments made by President Barack Obama’s administration regarding the nuclear agreements made with Iran in 2015 in the UN Security Council. This would mean lifting the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration against Iran, which would eventually allow the Persian country’s oil production to return to the 3.5 million barrels of its 2018 levels.

Venezuela

With 383,000 barrels per day in September, oil production in Venezuela (a founding member of OPEC), continues to be affected by the serious problems caused by the mismanagement of the company as well as by the operational collapse brought on by the subsequent interventions and political purges executed by the government. Compared to 2013, when production was at 3,015 million barrels per day, oil production in Venezuela has fallen by 88% (a loss of 2,632,000 barrels per day). The current production is equivalent to what the country had 90 years ago, in 1930.

The collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry is one of the fundamental reasons for the deep political, economic, and social crisis in the country, as oil income, which in 2013 represented 96% of the national income, has plummeted, plunging 96.2% of the population into poverty levels and the whole country into a deep instability, with severe problems related to the legitimacy of the government and its institutions, and a general collapse of the State preventing any possibility of recovery in the short term.

Libya

With a production of 156 thousand barrels per day, Libya experienced a 33.34% increase in its production compared to August. The country has seen its oil production affected by the foreign military intervention²⁰of 2011 and the civil war that has kept the North African country in a permanent armed confrontation.

In January 2020, the forces of the Libyan National Army, commanded by Khalifa Haftar, imposed a blockade²¹on the oil fields and terminals of the country, causing a fall in oil production from 1,097 million barrels a day in December 2019 to 104 thousand barrels a day in August 2020.

In June, the parties in the conflict announced from Sochi, Russia, a ceasefire agreement. On October 23^rd, the National Army of Libya, the Eastern Parliament, and the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), signed²²in Geneva a permanent ceasefire agreement, with the mediation of the UN, thus lifting the blockade on oil activity that had been imposed by the National Liberation Army since early 2020, providing security guarantees to the National Oil and Gas Corporation (NOC) of Libya that oil activities and operations would be resumed.

On October 11^th, the NOC announced²³the reactivation of the Al Sharara field, the largest in Libya and inactive since February 2020, with a production capacity of 300 thousand barrels of oil per day.

By September 21^st, the Libyan National Liberation Army (LNA) had already allowed the opening of the Marsa El Hariga, Brega, and Zueitina terminals, and improved security at the Zueitna Oil Company fields, which allowed production to be resumed²⁴.

On October 29^th, several news agencies reported that Libya had been able to bring its production up to 680,000 barrels per day²⁵.

COLLAPSE OF OIL PRODUCTION IN LIBYA
(January-September 2020)

If Libya managed to recover and take its production levels back to those it had in January 2020, it would add 1 million barrels a day to the world’s oil production. This possibility has already been reflected by the market through the weakening of the prices, given the fragility of the current oil demand.

RANKING OF THE OPEC COUNTRIES
(September 2020)

Non-OPEC countries

The 9 Non-OPEC producing countries, signatories to the OPEC+ DoC agreement and participating in the production cuts –Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan– account for 12.72 million barrels of oil per day²⁶, which is 34.5% of OPEC+’s production.

PRODUCTION NON-OPEC COUNTRIES SIGNING THE OPEC+ DoC AGREEMENT
(September 2020)

With Mexico’s withdrawal from the OPEC+ production cuts agreement in July, the production of the Russian Federation takes 71.7% of the total production of the Non-OPEC countries participating in the cuts agreement.

In practical terms, this situation makes the OPEC+ agreement an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia, given the specific weight of both producers, who together produce 18.08 million barrels per day, 49% of OPEC+’s total production volume.

Russia

Data from the Russian Ministry of Energy²⁷show that crude oil production increased by 50,000 barrels per day between August and September, to record 9.12 million barrels per day of oil, more than 100,000 barrels above its production cut-off quota²⁸.

In a statement made on October 22^nd, President Vladimir Putin reiterated²⁹his support for OPEC+’s efforts to improve the current market situation, and said he would support keeping the cuts unchanged, should the demand situation worsen.

According to preliminary data from the EIA in the STEO report³⁰, as of October 6^th, Russian oil production for the third quarter was 9.08 million barrels per day, estimating an average of 9.63 million barrels per day for the year-end.

This figure is not far from the one published in the OPEC MOMR in October, which places Russia’s production in September at 9.19 million barrels of oil per day –a drop of 9% compared to 2019– and forecasts a recovery for 2021 with a production of 9.6 million barrels of oil per day.

RUSSIA’S OIL PRODUCTION
(September 2019 – September 2020)

Mexico

Mexico’s production in September³¹was 1,643 million barrels of oil per day, an increase of 0.7% with respect to August. Mexico’s oil production has been affected since 2016, and has been falling until dropping to historical levels in 2020, mainly due to the depletion of the Cantarell field³²and the failure of the Energy Reform³³of 2013, which modified articles 26, 27 and 28 of the Mexican Constitution in order to allow the private sector to have participation in oil activities, which were 100% under the control of the Mexican State before the reform.

When the «Energy Reform» took place, Mexican production was at 2.5 million barrels per day. By 2018, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador/AMLO is elected president, oil production was at 1.85 million barrels days, with the state-owned oil company (PEMEX) assuming debts due to the drop in its production, the loss of an important part of the internal market, the lack of commitment in the disbursement of private investment approved in 2016 and the effects of this year’s COVID-19.

AMLO has stated his intention to resort to a new constitutional reform³⁴to reverse the «Energy Reform» in order to strengthen PEMEX. On July 22^nd, the Mexican President announced³⁵that he will stop granting permits or concessions to individuals in the energy sector.

USA

According to EIA data³⁶, as of October 28^th U.S. oil production rose to 11.1 million barrels of oil per day, its highest level in 14 weeks. However, the average oil production for October was 10.6 million barrels per day, a reduction of 3% from the September average.

Production in the U.S. has been affected since August by the hurricane season. In October, Hurricanes Delta³⁷and Zeta³⁸ hit the Gulf of Mexico area as far as Louisiana, causing the shutdown of offshore production operations.

By October 29^th, the Gulf of Mexico area had stopped producing 16.1 million barrels of oil during the whole month, as a result of hurricanes; of this amount, 12.05 million were affected by Hurricane Delta and 4.05 million by Hurricane Zeta, affecting October production by more than 500 thousand barrels of oil per day.

DELTA HURRICANE: AFFECTING PRODUCTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
(October 6^th to 16^th, 2020)

By the week of October 2^nd, 2020, U.S. oil production had continued the recovery shown on September 11^th, reaching 11 million barrels of oil per day.

Then, in the week of October 16^th, production registered 9.9 million barrels per day, a weekly drop of 6%, according to the weekly EIA report of October 21^st, affected by the impact of Hurricane Delta.

As of October 23^rd, U.S. production has registered a drop of 2 million barrels of oil per day in the last 7 months, after reaching 13 million barrels per day in March 2020, its historical production record.

The EIA forecasts³⁹that U.S. production will not exceed 11 million barrels per day during the last quarter of 2020, and will remain around that figure in 2021. The United States has maintained production above 10 million barrels per day of oil since April 2018, due to the increase of 7 million barrels per day of shale oil, which represents 63% of U.S. production in 2019, according to EIA data.

U.S. WEEKLY OIL PRODUCTION
(2015-2020)

US Drilling Activity

In relation to the activity of drills in the extraction, the figures provided by Baker Hughes⁴⁰show that the progressive increase in the number of drills continues during this month: from 189 in the week of October 2^nd (6 drills more than the previous figure), to 193 in the week of the 9^th, to 205 in the week of the 16^th, and to 211 in the week of October 23^rd. The number of drills had not exceeded 200 since early June this year; however, there is still a long way to go from the 683 drills in mid-March, before the pandemic.

DRILLING ACTIVITY IN THE U.S.
(March-October 2020)

Most of the drills in operation are in the Permian shale oil basin. In this regard, and taking into consideration the sensitivity of the business to oil prices, and the «trio of challenges: cash shortages, cancellation of new wells and natural depletion of existing ones«⁴¹, it can be expected «a difficult, long and difficult road» for the shale industry to return to the record levels of production that contributed to placing the United States at the head of oil producers.

As a result, the sector is experiencing mergers and reshaping, reflected in the recent purchases⁴²of the companies Parsley Energy Inc., by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Concho Resources Inc. by ConocoPhillips, thus creating «one of the largest producers in the Permian Basin«.

SHALE OIL PRODUCER RANKING
IN USA

ECONOMY

COVID-19: «Second Wave»

On Friday, October 30^th, there were 45.3 million registered infections worldwide⁴³; the number of deaths continues to increase to 1.18 million deaths⁴⁴, and more than 30 million people have recovered⁴⁵.

The country with the highest number of cases is the United States, with 9 million infections and more than 229,000 deaths⁴⁶, followed by India, with 8 million cases and 121,000 deaths⁴⁷, and Brazil, with more than 5.5 million cases and a cumulative total of more than 159,000 deaths⁴⁸. Russia has 1.6 million infections, while Colombia, Argentina and Spain have more than 1 million contagions.

Since September, Europe has been hit by the «second wave» of the COVID-19, with an exponential increase of cases in Spain, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Czech Republic⁴⁹; although the increase of infections has reached the levels of April, the number of deaths is five times less, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), which has pointed out Europe again as «the epicenter of the pandemic«.

European governments are returning to partial restrictions on economic activity and movement, trying to contain the infections and to avoid a total blockade of activities, as it happened during the first months of the year. The «second wave» of COVID-19 has meant a setback in the efforts and expectations of economic recovery.

While U.S. authorities have been unable to control the spread of the «first wave of the virus”, as thirty-four states reported an increase in new cases of COVID-19 for at least two consecutive weeks⁵⁰, and nine of them showed increases ranging between 30% and 66% in one week.

The efforts of the world’s leading economy to overcome COVID-19 have been unsuccessful and have been marked by the inconsistency of the administration’s response and the political debate in the face of the elections, where, on the one hand, the need to protect the population is debated, but on the other hand, the electoral imperative to recover the economy and employment, both of which have been drastically affected by the pandemic, is imposed.

However, the region that has been the most affected by the coronavirus continues to be Latin America and the Caribbean⁵¹, «where more than 379,000 people lost their lives and almost 10.5 million have been infected«⁵². The region lacks a common health or economic policy to deal with the pandemic; on the contrary, two of the region’s most important economies, Brazil and Mexico, have chosen to do little or nothing to protect their populations so as not to affect their economies; being this an unnecessary effort, as the economic impact is global.

CORONAVIRUS CASES BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGION (March-October 2020)

The only region that has been able to contain the advance of the COVID-19 and reduce its expansion has been Asia, which, under the leadership of China, has shown signs of recovery in the economy and the demand for oil.

Vaccines

The pharmaceutical corporation Johnson & Johnson, which had begun the final stage of its study in September, announced⁵³ in mid-October that it was suspending testing after the «unexplained illness» of one of the volunteers.

On the other hand, the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca restarted⁵⁴its tests in Brazil, Japan and the United Kingdom, but the death of one of the Brazilian volunteers, on October 20^th, generated uncertainty again. China⁵⁵, Germany⁵⁶and Russia⁵⁷ have reported on the testing of their vaccine prototypes on volunteers.

According to the WHO, there are more than 300 vaccines in development; 40 of which are being tested in humans and 9 have reached phase three of clinical trials⁵⁸; however, the current situation seems to indicate that these vaccines will be available worldwide by 2021, once their effectiveness and effects on patients have been confirmed.

Expectations of the Global Economy

OPEC’s monthly report, published on October 13^th, reiterated⁵⁹that «economies that were able to implement effective measures to contain COVID-19 in the first half of 2020, in combination with strong stimulus measures» have done better in their economic performance and, in this regard, the Organization is revising its growth forecasts upwards for the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and China, while estimating downwards those of certain emerging and developing economies. As for the global calculation, OPEC estimates that economic growth for 2020 will contract by 4.1% year-on-year, without taking into account the effect that uncertainty may cause because of events such as «the trajectory of the pandemic in the short term, the elections in the US, the Brexit and the current geopolitical tensions«.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook report⁶⁰, published on October 1^st, projects a 4.4% contraction in the economy this year, with China’s economy recovering faster than expected.

For the IMF, the GDP recovery in year 2021 would be 5.2% and, although positive, it would represent only 0.6% above the 2019 figure. The report warns that the pandemic «will reverse the progress made since the 1990s in reducing poverty, and will increase inequality«.

Regarding the OECD⁶¹, in declarations at the World Economic Forum on October 16^th, it modified its forecast of a contraction of world GDP from 6% to 4.5% in 2020; while the president of the World Bank, David Malpass, pointed out⁶²in mid-October that «developments point to a more superficial recession in the advanced economies and a more robust recovery than estimated in China. However, in most other emerging and developing economies the recession has been much deeper –and the recovery later– than estimated in June«.

Foreign Debt and COVID-19

The G-20 Finance Ministers confirmed⁶³, at their meeting on October 14^th, their commitment to the implementation of the G-20 and Paris Club’s Debt Service Deferral Initiative (DSDI) in deferring $5 billion in official debt payments to 43 countries that requested it, so as to finance economic, social and health measures to respond to the pandemic.

Developing countries will be required to pay $130 billion in debt service this year, and there will be «an increase in the global deficit and public debt, which the IMF estimates at -13.9% and 101% of world GDP by 2020 [respectively]. An increase of 10 and almost 20 percentage points over 2019«⁶⁴.

In Latin America, according to the Inter-American Development Bank⁶⁵, the average debt reached 58% of the regional GDP at the beginning of 2020 and, taking into account the effects of COVID-19, could reach 75% in the next 18 months.

In sub-Saharan Africa⁶⁶, the situation was already complicated before the pandemic –with the debt burden growing by 150%, some $583 billion, between 2008 and 2018– and with 34 countries already in default; Africa’s financial needs⁶⁷would be $100 billion per year for a period of 3 years.

In Europe⁶⁸, the economic impact of the coronavirus is also evident in the area of debt, with reports of an increase in the debt/GDP ratio in the Eurozone this year, where Belgium, France, Greece and Italy have had increases in the referred indicator that exceed the average for the region in the second quarter of the year.

China

The Chinese news agency Xinhua reports⁶⁹that the economic recovery gained strength in the third quarter of 2020, with a GDP growth of 4.9%, a higher figure than the 3.2% reached between April and June, as a result of the «effective control of the coronavirus and the government’s forceful efforts to stimulate demand and consumption«. Other figures⁷⁰ that show the strength of the country’s recovery are the growth of industrial production by 5.8% and the first quarterly expansion of retail sales in 2020 (0.9% year-on-year).

The projection places China’s economic growth in 2020 at 1.9%, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report⁷¹updated in October. Both the International Monetary Fund and Oxford Economics estimate⁷²that China’s economic growth in 2020 will be 2%, below the 6% projected before the start of the pandemic. However, the Asian giant will be the only major economy in the world that, according to these sources, will show growth in 2020.

GROWTH PROJECTION FOR ADVANCED, DEVELOPING AND CHINA’S ECONOMIES
(April-June-October 2020)

Europe

In its most recent report⁷³published in September, the European Central Bank (ECB) assures that with the new wave of contagion, «the mistrust of consumers and investors within the euro zone will resurface«. The ECB experts calculated positive growth of 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, but the effects of the second wave of COVID-19 may negatively impact both the 3% growth forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 and the optimistic views for the next two years.

In a press conference on October 29^th, the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, said that the «second wave» has created clear risks for the economy of the region, saying that the ECB is ready to act and inject more stimuli into the European economy.

On the other hand, in the IMF regional report⁷⁴published in October, this organization recognizes that the pandemic would have had a greater impact if it were not for «the fiscal packages deployed by European governments to support households and businesses«, as well as the measures taken by the ECB.

In turn, the Fund’s report considers that the region’s forecasts for 2020 «continue to be austere and the recovery will be prolonged and uneven«, with a projection of a contraction of Europe’s GDP estimated at 7% for 2020 and a positive rebound of 4.7% in 2021.

United States

The upcoming presidential election on November 3^rd –where more than 80 million Americans have already voted– with the polls giving Democratic candidate Joe Biden an advantage over President Donald Trump, has created great expectations in the markets, since its result will significantly impact the performance of the world’s leading economy, as well as its foreign policy.

There are important differences between the two candidates’ proposals on issues such as the strategy for COVID-19, the health system, the oil industry, taxes, racial injustice issues, the environment and the Paris agreement. Policy toward Iran and the Middle East, China, WTO agreements, economic and employment approaches are some of the key issues that will definitely have a major impact in the U.S. and internationally, depending on who wins the very close presidential race, one of the most complicated in U.S. history.

Economy in the U.S.

September data from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate⁷⁵that in the second quarter of 2020, real GDP fell by 31.4% year-on-year, a very high figure when compared to the 5% drop in the first quarter. This decline reflects changes resulting from quarantine measures in March and April and their partial lifting in May and June, along with government assistance payments to households and businesses affected by the pandemic.

However, the data published by this Bureau for the third quarter shows a significant recovery of 33.1% of the real GDP, driven by the increase in personal consumption expenses, exports and imports, goods (led by car sales) and services (led by health expenses, meals and accommodation); this consumption has been largely fueled by the more than 3 trillion dollars of federal stimuli.

REAL GDP VARIATION IN THE U.S.
(from previous quarter)

The economic forecasts of the Districts that make up the Federal Reserve System (FED) are «generally optimistic or positive, but with a considerable degree of uncertainty«.

Other analysts’ forecasts indicate that, although some indicators such as the manufacturing and housing sectors have rebounded «the recovery is slowing down in an environment of renewed contagion and lack of new fiscal stimuli«⁷⁶, so that consumption and sectors such as services «continue to be affected by fear of contagion and restrictions«.

Unemployment in the U.S.

The Department of Labor (DOL) reported⁷⁷, as of October 29^th, that there were 751,000 requests for unemployment assistance, a decrease of 147,000 from the beginning of the month, when it reached 898,000 requests.

This index continues the downward trend, with the figures for the last two months being the lowest since the end of March, but they are still well above the average 200 thousand reached⁷⁸in January and February 2020.

On the other hand, in analyzing the behavior of this indicator it must be taken into account that for two weeks, starting on September 19^th, the state of California stopped the registration of new applications while it reviewed and updated the pending ones⁷⁹; this could have had an impact on the real unemployment figures.

However, the Secretary of Labor pointed out that in September⁸⁰that 877,000 jobs were added in the private sector, although he admits that 350,000 jobs were lost in the public sector and in education. In addition, the total number of applicants for unemployment benefits in all programs, as of October 3^rd, reached 23.15 million; in the same week in 2019 that figure was 1.3 million.

APPLICATIONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT ASSISTANCE IN THE U.S.
(January – October 2020)

DEMAND

The recovery of global oil demand remains the great unknown in terms of market fundamentals, as it is closely linked to the performance of the world economy, particularly the large industrialized and oil-consuming economies: the United States, China, Europe, India and Asian countries.

The uncertainty caused for the expansion of the COVID-19 in the USA, India and Latin America, the «second wave» of the pandemic in Europe, and the economic impact of the governments’ restrictions and confinement measures, as well as the process of mergers and bankruptcy of companies, debt, inflation, supply chains, unemployment and consumption, are some of the variables of the complex situation of the world economy; to which it should be added geopolitical tensions factors such as Brexit, the trade war between China and the U.S., sanctions on Iran and wars and tensions in North Africa and the Middle East, among others.

Therefore, the restoration of the demand for oil and products continues to generate concern in the market, not only because it is difficult to predict the moment of such recovery, but also because of the new levels of demand in a «post-COVID-19» world.

Both OPEC⁸¹and the IEA⁸², in their market reports for October, maintain their estimates for 2020 and estimate oil demand at between 90.3 and 91.7 million barrels per day, respectively, which is a loss of 9.76 and 8.06 million barrels of oil, compared to the demand of 99.76 million barrels in 2019.

In its STEO report⁸³, the EIA estimates, as of October 7^th, that the demand for oil worldwide will be at 91.16 million barrels per day, a drop of 8.6 million barrels per day in 2020 compared to 2019.

ANNUAL VARIATION IN WORLD DEMAND OF OIL
(2019-2021)

With respect to oil demand for 2021, the EIA maintains its estimates of 99.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 7.4 million barrels per day over the data estimated for 2020.

On the other hand, both OPEC and the IEA remain more cautious about the estimates for the recovery of oil demand worldwide, both reducing their forecasts for 2021 to 96.8 and 97.1 million barrels a day, respectively, which is an additional 6.5 and 6 million barrels over projections for 2020.

At the September 19^th meeting of the OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), member countries reaffirmed their commitment to take action in the face of depressed global demand amidst the second wave of contagion, which has been interpreted as a possible shift in the cuts planned for 2021.

Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, insisted⁸⁴on facilitating the cuts: «The recovery in demand is uneven (…) Today this process has slowed down due to a second wave of coronavirus, but it has not yet been completely reversed«.

UNITED STATES

Oil imports into the U.S. –according to the weekly EIA report⁸⁵as of October 28^th– increased to 5.45 billion barrels per day, reversing the downward trend that has been in place since July.

CRUDE OIL IMPORTS TO U.S.
4-WEEK AVERAGE
(2018-2019-October 2020)

According to the EIA, in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, on October 28^th oil imports averaged some 5.6 million barrels per day, 20% less than in the same period in 2019.

China

The recovery of the local economy in China places this country, since the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters of the year, as the driver of the recovery of demand for oil and products in Asia.

China was the only major consumer whose demand increased between April and September 2020, compared to the same period last year; the country, taking advantage of the excess of cheap oil on the market, has imported during those months 2,108 billion barrels (12.8% of total global production, according to Chinese customs data⁸⁶and the IEA) for both consumption and storage and, according to World Bank forecasts, next year will be one of the few countries where demand will not be less than that of 2019.

In this regard, Reuters news agency mentions this week that «traders» are buying and sending to China shipments of crude oil in order to «capitalize on the expected increase in demand at the end of the year, when the independent refineries in China [–which had slowed down imports by reaching the quotas assigned by the government–] will receive the new import licenses for 2021«.

OIL PURCHASES BY INDEPENDENT REFINERIES IN CHINA

India

According to the October OPEC’s MOMR report, the oil demand in India during the period April-September 2020 fell by 35%, compared to the consumption registered in the first quarter of 2020. The Organization estimates a growth in demand to 4.34 million barrels per day for the fourth quarter and an average consumption of 17% below that registered in 2019.

For 2021, a 14% recovery in demand is expected, to reach an average consumption of 4.61 million barrels per day.

REAL AND ESTIMATED OIL DEMAND FROM INDIA
(2019-2021)

Between January and July, the largest reduction in oil demand in Asia was recorded in India, with a drop of 1.4 million barrels per day compared to the same period in 2019.

STORAGE

OECD Countries

The EIA report⁸⁷dated October 21^st, states that storage in OECD countries is at 3.2 million barrels of oil, 123 million above the average recorded between 2015 and 2019.

COMMERCIAL OIL INVENTORY OECD COUNTRIES
(2018-2020)

According to the same report, the commercial inventories of the OECD countries fell to 3.09 billion barrels in the third quarter of 2020 and they expect an even greater fall, at the end of the year, to 2.967 billion barrels, an increase of 3% over the average for 2019.

On the other hand, the EIA calculation⁸⁸, as of October 16^th, highlights that the drainage of inventories has been slow. According to preliminary data, the greatest reduction in oil storage for September was in the United States and Japan; only Europe increased its oil reserves in this period.

In relation to the fourth quarter, the IEA considers that 4.1 million barrels will be drained, in the event of full compliance with the OPEC+ production cuts and a slight recovery in demand, although the scenario remains uncertain in view of the continuous advance of the pandemic.

USA

According to data published⁸⁹by the EIA on October 28^th, commercial storage of crude oil in the US increased 1% by 4 million barrels, to be placed in 492 million barrels and exceeding the average storage of the last 5 years by 10%.

According to the EIA, the last week of October saw an increase of 1.9 million barrels in gasoline inventories, the highest figure since last May, while the demand for fuel has dropped considerably, reaching its lowest level since August of this year; a situation that could be worsened by restrictions that may be applied due to the increase in cases of COVID-19.

While strategic oil reserves fell by 645 million barrels, for a total of 1,131 million barrels, the total reserves (including commercial storage and strategic reserves) have decreased by 5% from the four-week average recorded in May, when they reached record levels of 1,421 million barrels.

COMMERCIAL OIL STORAGE AND U.S. COVERAGE DAYS
(January 2015 – February 2021)

Regarding coverage days⁹⁰, this week they increased to 36.6 days, which is 5% above the five-week average for August and 50% above the levels recorded on the same date in 2019.

VENEZUELA

The Venezuelan oil industry is still going through the worst crisis in its history, which is reflected in the collapse of its oil and gas production and the operational collapse of its refining system. This has resulted in a significant decrease in oil income –which, until 2014, represented 96% of the country’s income from exports– and in an acute shortage of all fuels for the domestic market.

The government, without showing any signs of rectification or any plan for the recovery of the oil industry, insists on successive and failed interventions in PDVSA and on the militarization of its structures, as well as on a political narrative wherein it associates the situation of the industry with U.S. ambitions and with alleged attacks by armed or terrorist groups against the country.

These are false arguments, false positives, which fulfill limited political objectives but do not help at all to identify the problems of the industry and much less to address its solutions, while the country continues to be in the throes of a deep crisis.

PRODUCTION

According to OPEC’s last monthly report, corresponding to October, Venezuelan production is at 383,000 barrels of oil per day, reflecting the collapse of oil production in the country, which has suffered a loss of 2,632 million barrels with respect to its 2013 production level of 3,015 million barrels of oil per day, a drop of 87.29% in 7 years.

VENEZUELA’S OIL PRODUCTION
(2013-2020)

It is paradoxical that Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves on the planet (certified at 316 billion barrels of oil) is currently at the same production levels of 1930, 90 years ago.

In seven years Venezuela has lost all capacity for influence and any relevance in the international oil market and within OPEC, going from being the 5^th producer country of the Organization⁹¹in 2008 –leveled with Kuwait and UAE– to the 9^th producer country in 2020.

The government’s manifest inability to manage the oil sector between 2014 and 2020 has caused the biggest collapse of oil production in any country in the history of oil industry, without having exhausted its deposits or suffered a war. It will be a case study on how a management,  deliberately oriented by its administrators to weaken its national company Petróleos de Venezuela, PDVSA and to subject it to successive government interventions and political persecutions until its militarization, has opened the doors to the process of privatization of the activity and reversion of the Política de Plena Soberanía Petrolera, the Full Oil Sovereignty Policy, which was the base of the country’s economic and social development and contained the most important elements of the traditionally advanced Venezuelan oil policy, whose principles gave origin to the foundation of OPEC in 1961.

With the drop in production suffered between 2014 and 2020, the country has lost both its oil income and its fiscal oil income, causing a deep political, economic and social crisis that has led the once prosperous country to a situation wherein 96% of the population is in poverty and more than 5 million young people have left the country.

The dysfunction of the Venezuelan State and its inability to manage the administration of the resources has been the preamble of a 180-degree turn in the sovereign policies regarding the handling of oil that characterized the government of President Hugo Chávez between 1999 and 2012.

THE ANTI-BLOCKADE LAW

The national government, by using the National Constituent Assembly –installed in year 2017 and used as a way of subtracting attributions from the National Assembly controlled by the political opposition– avoided any national debate or discussion and approved, in a single session, the so-called Anti-Blockade Law⁹², which confers extraordinary powers to the national Executive power to disregard the laws of the Republic and to attribute to itself the rest of the Powers of the State; all of this with the most absolute secrecy as a rule of action.

This law, which has been questioned by various sectors in the country due to its unconstitutional nature, seeks to repeal the political and legal regime that governs the oil sector, an activity that is reserved for the State as the representative of the collective interest of the Venezuelan people and owner of the oil, as it has been established in all the Constitutions in the history of the country since the Quito Decree⁹³issued by the Liberator Simón Bolívar in 1827.

We have made an analysis of the Anti-Blockade Law, its articles and its unconstitutional aspects that we make available in an extensive text for your knowledge and discussion of all its articles and the implications for the country and for the different actors involved.

According to this Law, the government will establish new agreements and will sign all kinds of oil contracts, sale of the country’s assets or transfer of activities previously reserved to the State in the most absolute secrecy, without any kind of control and going beyond the laws in force.

Of course, these contracts, assignments and agreements are subject to reversion in the future, as they are null and void and outside both the current legal framework and the State control bodies.

The government, taking advantage of the deep economic crisis and the State institutions’ dysfunction, intends to repeal de facto the oil legal framework in force in the country, thus attracting vulture or adventure capitals to a new, illegal business scheme in this strategic sector for the country, expropriating the Venezuelan people from the only instrument available to get out of the crisis: oil.

REFINERY CIRCUIT IN RUINS

An explosion that occurred⁹⁴in the DC-4 distillation unit of the Amuay refinery last Tuesday, October 27^th, stopped the fuel production operations of this facility, the largest in the country, which had been experiencing difficulties in operating continuously.

In view of this accident, nicolás maduro pointed out in a press conference that it was a terrorist attack with a «powerful weapon» and that the incident is being investigated by Petróleos de Venezuela⁹⁵. However, oil workers –who, on numerous occasions, warned of possible incidents due to the lack of maintenance of the facilities and the lack of expertise in operations– rejected⁹⁶these statements, indicating that the explosion could have been caused by an internal over-pressure in one of the VGO towers.

Additionally, during his speech, maduro confirmed that Venezuela only has fuel reserves for 20 days⁹⁷, which increases the anguish and difficulties of the population to obtain fuel, in view of the collapse of the national refining system.

In recent months the country has faced a terrible crisis regarding the availability of gasoline, this as a consequence of the collapse of the national refinery circuit.

The collapse of Petróleos de Venezuela‘s refinery park persists and it is unlikely that this important sector of the oil industry will be reactivated, due to the high level of deterioration reached owing to the absence of both preventive and corrective maintenance activities and the acute lack of general resources required to guarantee operations.

Despite the little information provided by the PDVSA authorities, it is known that the refineries operate at only 10% of their installed capacity. The lack of timely maintenance, starting in 2014; the detour of operational resources; the failure to comply with the programming of technical stoppages; the enormous shortages of materials and equipment; the lack of qualified personnel, as well as the militarization of these facilities, contribute to the collapse of the national refining system.

The actions of the current board of directors of PDVSA and of the government are oriented to recover the gasoline production plants in the Amuay and El Palito refineries; however, the operating times of these facilities have been short, as a result of incidents that have forced their shutdown, such as what happened⁹⁸on October 10^th in El Palito, when the Catalytic Cracking Fractionation Plant was stopped due to a damaged turbine.

A similar situation occurred⁹⁹on Tuesday, October 20^th, 2020, when, after only one day of operation, the gasoline production unit of the Cardón refinery was also stopped due to problems in the Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit.

Unofficially, oil workers point out that the fundamental cause of these failed attempts is the erratic vision of the authorities regarding the problem of the network of refineries in the country and how to deal with it, in addition to the high degree of internal persecution that prevents the opinion and participation of the workers from taking the necessary actions.

The collapse of PDVSA‘s refining system (which in 2014 produced 1,072 thousand barrels per day, allocating 660 MBD for internal consumption and 400 MBD for exports) is reflected in the strong shortage of gasoline suffered by the entire country. There is no gasoline in the countryside; only in the border states of Zulia and Táchira there is limited access to fuel from Colombia, whose cost per liter exceeds $2 in the best case scenario.

Unofficial sources indicate that military and police authorities have authorized the free transit of fuel across the border, with the aim of alleviating the serious shortages that the government has not had the capacity to stop or, at least, mitigate.

Another sector highly affected by the precarious condition of the national oil industry and the National Refining Circuit is the distribution of domestic gas, which directly affects citizens and limits the possibilities of preparing food, leaving them to resort to the use of firewood as a substitute.

The cost of a gas cylinder in popular sectors of the country can reach up to 500 thousand Bolivars¹⁰⁰, when the minimum integral salary in Venezuela is barely 800 thousand Bolivars, equivalent to 1.47 dollars.

The commercialization of this product, although it is the responsibility of PDVSA, was ceded to the regional governments in some states and, in other cases, it is controlled by mafias that set the high prices and anarchize the distribution of the product.

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