On August 26 of this year, the North American company «Harvest Natural Resources» («Harvest») announced that it was voluntarily withdrawing the lawsuit filed against me in the Southern District Court of Texas, Houston.
The withdrawal of this absurd civil lawsuit confirms that it was a reckless action, without evidence to support it, based on false assumptions and lies. Harvest tried to ride the coat tails of the Venezuelan government’s smear campaign against me to obtain economic benefits by acting as extortionists – but they failed.
It is important to note that the tribunal rendered a disproportionate decision against me in 2018—at the time when it was impossible for me to exercise my defense because I had not been properly notified of the suit. Harvest took advantage of the fact that I had left the United States on December 4, 2017 and was in political exile, unable to return to my country due to the threats and political persecution of the Venezuelan government, to advance its claims.
Harvest, an oil company that did business in Venezuela, took advantage of the political persecution against me to try to criminalize my work as Minister of Petroleum, even though my work was always done in compliance with the Constitution and the Organic Law of Hydrocarbons, with respect for the laws and the policies governing my country’s oil resources. Something I have always done and will continue to do, since it safeguards the best interests of our people.
Aware of the judicial action of Harvest, my legal team notified the Court of our determination to exercise my right to a defense. Once I was able to participate in the case, I answered the questions the plaintiffs submitted to the Court and provided the information and documents that both the Court and Harvest requested. I have nothing to hide.
Harvest even hired research companies to locate my supposed «assets and fortune.» They found nothing, because none of their accusations and lies were grounded in facts—it was all «fake news».
Throughout the process, the record shows that Harvest acted in bad faith, hid valuable information and documentation in the process, raised lies and infamies against me, made false testimonies, knowing that their false accusations would be reported in the media and social networks to damage my name and reputation, also affecting my family. Perhaps they thought that this enormous pressure against me would create the subjective conditions to achieve their extortionist objectives. They were wrong. The Court determined on June 9, 2020 that there were sufficient reasons to reject and annul the Court’s previous decision against me, and to begin the process leading to a trial on the merits of Harvest’s baseless accusations, a decision that we welcomed, as it was going to give us the opportunity to unmask the false allegations of Harvest. Harvest withdrew the lawsuit unilaterally, before reaching a trial, knowing that they would lose on the merits. Harvest’s decision to withdraw the lawsuit did not involve any concessions or settlement on my part, despite all kinds of extortionist maneuvers. There could be no agreement, because it was a question of false facts.
Harvest’s withdrawal of the lawsuit makes it clear that they had no basis whatsoever for their allegations, they were completely unfounded, they did not achieve anything to support their lies and absurd claims. The withdrawal does not make up for the enormous damage they have caused me and my family, without publicly apologizing. The withdrawal of the Harvest lawsuit vindicates me, although I will not waive my right to see justice done. It will be a lesson for all those who believe that they will be able to obtain economic or political advantages by joining forces with the campaign of lies and hatred promulgated by the Venezuelan government and extremist sectors of the country against me, who continue in their quest to make me disappear from the political scene by any means possible. It is what the government wants, but that is not going to happen.
As long as the principle of presumption of innocence is respected, the judicial system operates efficiently and fairly, and I am given an opportunity to defend myself and make my arguments, my accusers and persecutors will be unmasked before justice and in the eyes of public opinion.
Venezuela is going through the worst crisis in its history as a republic, there are no institutions or guarantees of any kind. The judiciary is being used as an instrument to exercise political persecution, and the government continues to persecute me in an effort to bury me alive or kill me in any one of its centers for political detainees. But nothing they do, nothing they try, will make me desist from my manifest purpose of contributing to the reestablishment of the constitutional thread in my country, the rule of law, nor will all their power and immense resources make me forego my ideals, or retreat from our work at the service of the Venezuelan State, in defense of the most sacred interests of the homeland and the Venezuelan people. In the end, truth will prevail over infamy. I want to thank the unwavering support and trust of my family and friends during these difficult times. I also want to thank my defense team, who have acted professionally. I want to thank everyone who has always believed in my innocence, I will never let you down.
El pasado 26 de agosto de los corrientes, la empresa norteamericana “Harvest Natural Resources” (“Harvest”) anunció que retiraba de manera voluntaria la demanda interpuesta en mi contra ante el Tribunal del Distrito Sur de Texas, Houston.
El retiro de esta absurda demanda civil, confirma que la misma era una acción temeraria, sin pruebas que la respaldasen, basada en falsos supuestos y mentiras, que, cabalgando sobre la intensa campaña de desprestigio y descalificaciones del gobierno y sectores políticos venezolanos en mi contra, pretendieron obtener beneficios económicos actuando como extorsionadores.
Es importante señalar, que el caso avanzó ante el indicado Tribunal, imponiéndose una desproporcionada decisión en 2018, dada la imposibilidad que tuve en su momento de ejercer mi defensa, por no haber sido notificado apropiadamente. Pues, una vez que salí de territorio norteamericano el 04 de diciembre de 2017; y, sin poder regresar a mi país, por las amenazas y persecución política del gobierno venezolano, pasé a la condición de exiliado político, de la cual aprovechó “Harvest” para avanzar en sus pretensiones.
“Harvest”, empresa petrolera que tuvo actividades en el país, pretendía, aprovechando la situación de la persecución política de la que soy víctima, criminalizar mi actuación como Ministro de Petróleo, donde con base en la Constitución y en virtud de lo establecido estrictamente en la Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos, hicimos respetar y cumplir nuestra leyes y política en el manejo Soberano de nuestro petróleo. Actuación que siempre he reivindicado y lo seguiré haciendo, puesto que salvaguarda los mejores intereses de nuestro pueblo.
Enterados de la actuación judicial de “Harvest”, notificamos al Tribunal nuestra determinación de ejercer nuestro derecho a la defensa, y ya en pleno ejercicio del mismo, se atendieron las preguntas de un extenso cuestionario que los demandantes consignaron ante el Tribunal, el cual respondimos de manera plena, aportando la información y documentos, que tanto el Tribunal, como los demandantes, requirieron. No tenemos nada que ocultar.
“Harvest”, incluso llegó a contratar empresas de investigación para ubicar mis supuestos “bienes y fortuna”. No había nada, ninguna de sus acusaciones y mentiras tenían pruebas, actuaron basados en “fake news”, que uno a uno se fueron desmoronando.
En todo el proceso, el expediente probatorio muestra que “Harvest” actuó de mala fe, ocultó información valiosa y documentación en el proceso, levantó mentiras e infamias en mi contra, hizo falsos testimonios, sabiendo que sus falsas acusaciones serían reportadas en los medios de comunicación y redes sociales, para dañar mi nombre y reputación, afectando también a mi familia.
Tal vez pensaron que, esa enorme presión en mi contra, crearía las condiciones subjetivas para alcanzar sus objetivos extorsionadores. Se equivocaron.
Una vez que pude participar en el caso, el Tribunal determinó que existían suficientes razones para desestimar y anular, en fecha 13 de febrero de 2019, expresamente la anterior decisión en mi contra, para entonces iniciar el proceso para llegar a un juicio sobre el fondo de las absurdas acusaciones de “Harvest”, decisión que acogimos con beneplácito, pues nos permitiría llegar hasta el final del juicio para desenmascarar los falsos alegatos de los demandantes.
Así, “Harvest” retiró la demanda de manera unilateral, antes de entrar al juicio sobre el fondo de sus acusaciones, sabiendo que serían derrotados por completo ante el Tribunal. La decisión de “Harvest” no involucró ninguna concesión, ni se celebró ningún tipo de acuerdo por mi parte, a pesar de que hicieron todo tipo de maniobras extorsionadoras. No podía haber acuerdo, pues se trataba de hechos falsos, de una infamia.
La retirada de “Harvest” deja claro que no tenían base alguna para sus alegatos, éstos eran completamente infundados, no consiguieron nada para sustentar sus mentiras y absurdas pretensiones. “Harvest” retira la demanda, sin compensar el enorme daño que me han causado a mí y a mi familia, sin disculparse públicamente.
La retirada de la demanda de “Harvest”, me reivindica, aunque no renunciaré a mi derecho de que se haga justicia. Será una lección para todos aquellos que crean que podrán sacar ventajas económicas o políticas, plegándose a la campaña de mentiras y odio que, desde el gobierno venezolano y sectores extremistas del país, se mantiene en mi contra para justificar cualquiera de sus arbitrarias acciones, tratando por todos los medios que me desaparezca del escenario político. Es lo que el gobierno quiere, pero eso no va a pasar.
Siempre que tenga la posibilidad de ejercer mi derecho a la defensa, que se respete el principio de presunción de inocencia, de la tutela judicial efectiva y tenga la oportunidad de dar mis argumentos y alegatos con plenas garantías procesales, mis acusadores y perseguidores quedarán desenmascarados ante la justicia y la opinión pública.
Venezuela atraviesa la peor crisis de su historia Republicana, no existen instituciones, ni garantías de ningún tipo. Se ha judicializado la política como instrumento para ejercer la persecución política. En mi caso, el gobierno me persigue para enterrarme en vida o matarme en cualquiera de sus centros para detenidos políticos.
Pero, nada de lo que hagan, nada de lo que intenten, me hará desistir de mi propósito manifiesto de contribuir al restablecimiento del hilo constitucional en mi país, ni todo su poder e inmensos recursos, me harán claudicar en mis ideales, ni renegar de nuestra obra y trabajo al servicio del Estado Venezolano, en defensa de los más sagrados intereses de la patria y del pueblo venezolano. Al final, la verdad prevalecerá sobre la infamia.
Quiero agradecer el irreductible apoyo y confianza de mi familia y amigos en estos tiempos difíciles, agradezco también a mi equipo de defensa, quienes han actuado de manera profesional. Quiero agradecer a todos los que siempre han creído en mi inocencia, jamás los defraudaré.
Esta semana ha estado rodando por redes sociales una publicación en la que se asevera que la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) ha eliminado la certificación de exportador de petróleo a Venezuela. Esta noticia me genero mucha intriga siendo un estudioso de los temas energéticos sobre todo aquellos nacionales. Ante esto, investigue un poco acerca de esa “certificación”. Pero primer me gustaría hablar un poco de la OPEP y rol en el mundo del petróleo.La OPEP es un organismo intergubernamental cuya misión es unificar las políticas petroleras de los países miembros para así asegurar la estabilización de los mercados petrolero a fin de garantizar suministros eficientes, económico y regular de petróleo a los consumidores, ingresos estables a los productores y una tasa de retorno justa para los inversionistas. En palabras más terrenales, su principal función es “fijar” las cuotas de producción de los países miembros con la intención de controlar los precios.La OPEP se crea en 1960 durante la convención de Bagdad, los cinco miembros fundadores fueron Irán, Irak, Kuwait, Arabia Saudita y Venezuela. Esta unión entre países productores de petróleo surge como una necesidad ante el dominio de los precios del petróleo por las 7 hermanas (las 7 compañías petroleras más grandes para el momento). Venezuela no solo es miembro fundador de la OPEP, sino que es una idea impulsada por Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo.Tuvo su auge durante la década de los 70 cuando algunos eventos internacionales dieron como resultado el embargo árabe. Esto consistió en una negativa a vender petróleo a los países desarrollados y consumidores de energía ante su decisión de apoyar a Israel durante la guerra de Yom Kippur. La consecuencia de esto fue un rápido y violento incremento en los precios del petróleo.A partir de este momento, la OPEP comenzó a fijar los precios del crudo ya que, entre sus miembros, poseían el 72% de las reservas de petróleo y manejaban el 42% de la producción. Debido a esto, tenían gran influencia en los precios del petróleo. Sin embargo, en los últimos años, Rusia se ha convertido en un gran productor al igual que Estados Unidos.El Estatuto de la OPEP, estipula que “cualquier país con una exportación neta sustancial de petróleo crudo, que tenga intereses fundamentalmente similares a los de los Países Miembros, puede convertirse en Miembro Pleno de la Organización, si es aceptado por una mayoría de tres cuartos de los Miembros Plenos, incluyendo los votos concurrentes de todos los miembros fundadores «.Venezuela en el 2003 producía 3.2 MMBd (millones de barriles diarios) de los cuales exportaba unos 2 MMBd. No es secreto que la producción ha disminuido enormemente. El último reporte de la OPEP correspondiente a julio señala que, por fuentes secundarias debido a que el ministerio no ofrece cifras desde hace mucho tiempo, Venezuela produjo 339 mil barriles diarios.El mismo reporte sitúa la producción de otros países miembros como el Gabón, Guinea Ecuatorial y Libia en 189 mil, 110 mil y 100 mil barriles diarios respectivamente.La empresa petrolera nacional, PDVSA, es objeto de sanciones impuestas por la Oficina de Control de Activos Extranjeros de los Estados Unidos, OFAC por sus siglas en inglés, como medida de protección de los activos de Venezuela en el exterior contra el régimen, medida que le dificulta posicionar el crudo venezolano en mercados en el exterior.El 25 de agosto del 2017, bajo la Orden Ejecutiva 13808, el gobierno de Estados Unidos emite sanciones en contra de PDVSA que impide acceso a crédito por más de 90 días. Todas aquellas empresas en las que PDVSA cuente con una participación accionaria de 50% o más, serán también afectadas por estas sanciones,Luego, el 28 de enero del 2019 se incrementa la presión hacia Venezuela por parte de Estados Unidas a través de nuevas sanciones incluyendo así a Venezuela en la lista SDN (Specially Designated National) la cual prohíba a los ciudadanos estadunidenses o las empresas en este territorio a establecer relaciones comerciales con quienes se encuentran en la misma. Debido a esta medida, ningún ente relacionado con PDVSA tiene acceso al sistema financiero estadounidense por lo que pagos en dólares no son una posibilidadLo cierto es que esas «certificaciones no existen», la verdad es que seguimos perteneciendo a la OPEP, nuestra producción se ha venido al piso y seguimos exportando en pequeñas cantidades, comparado a nuestro pasado. Pero aun así exportamos petróleo, y será una actividad responsable de la recuperación de este país luego del cambio político.
“Quiero narrarte cómo fueron los días previos a la muerte de mi esposo Nelson Martínez. El sábado 17 de noviembre del 2018, cuando fui a visitarlo, lo encontré muriéndose y no exagero. No podía hablar, ni moverse, temblando, tenía días sin comer ni tomar nada. No aguantó ni 10 minutos y el custodio se lo llevo ayudándolo a caminar”, son palabras de Beatriz Arias de Martínez, esposa de quien ocupara los cargos más altos de petróleo en Venezuela, no solo como presidente de CITGO, sino como Ministro de Petróleo y Presidente de la estatal Pdvsa.
Tenía 67 años de edad, cuando el 12 de diciembre 2018 fallece. Era un químico, a quien caracterizaba la humildad, era muy reservado. Hizo maestrías en química y física en Francia y Estados Unidos, con doctorado en Reino Unido. Mucho antes de la llegada de Hugo Chávez al poder, Nelson Martínez se hace una referencia en la entonces muy prestigiosa empresa Petróleos de Venezuela. Dirigió la parte de refinación de PDVSA en Puerto La Cruz. Después llegó a la presidencia de Citgo, y con Nicolás Maduro, al Ministerio del Petróleo y presidencia de Pdvsa, solo por unos meses.
Un día cualquiera, con la excusa de haber cometido irregularidades en la refinanciación de la deuda de Citgo, filial de PDVSA en EEUU, Nicolás Maduro ordena su detención, el 30 de noviembre 2017. Ese día en la madrugada también es detenido, casi al mismo tiempo, Eulogio del Pino, quien fue ministro de Petróleo hasta tres días antes y quien había sustituido en ese cargo a Nelson Martínez el 24 de agosto 2017. Del Pino alcanzó a filmar un pequeño video solicitando derecho a la legítima defensa; estuvo en los sótanos de la DGCIM hasta hace unas semanas, cuando en el marco de la pandemia fue enviado a cumplir prisión en su casa.
La asistencia médica
Beatriz de Martínez dice que antes de morir su esposo “yo tenía semanas pidiendo que lo llevaran a una clínica porque me daba cuenta de que le podía estar dando endocarditis”, explica que lo hizo a través de los abogados y de personas que podían tener contacto con Nicolás Maduro.
“No hubo forma. Ese día 17 de diciembre 2018, al salir (de los sótanos de la Dirección General de Contrainteligencia Militar (Dgcim), lugar donde permanecía detenido), me encontré con el jefe de custodios, que estaba de guardia y le dije: si no sacan a Nelson a una clínica se les va a morir aquí adentro”. Ella no sabía que para ese momento ya la situación del ex ministro estaba llegando al colapso y era irreversible, porque no había recibido la atención requerida a tiempo.
Agrega la señora Martínez que “al día siguiente, domingo 18 de diciembre 2018, me llamaron al mediodía para decirme que la noche anterior, es decir, el sábado 17 en la noche, lo habían llevado al Hospital Militar de Caracas “Dr. Carlos Arvelo”, y que se encontraba en emergencia”.
Acudió presurosa y allí lo encontró con suero. A ella le dijeron que lo que él tenía era solo un malestar estomacal y que lo regresarían a las celdas de la Dgcim. Ella sospechaba que la situación podría ser de mayor gravedad. “Como pude hablé con el médico residente y le expliqué el problema cardíaco de mi esposo. Pero no me hizo caso, quizá no lo creía, pero después, por alguna razón que desconozco, lo subieron al piso 6 de detenidos militares”.
“Imposible describir lo que es ese sitio. Eso lo haré en otra oportunidad. Allí estuvo 16 días, donde solo lo veía el médico de piso y seguían sin saber lo que tenía. Exámenes que teníamos que hacer afuera y conseguir las medicinas. Esa situación continuó así hasta que el 5 de diciembre 2018 decidieron llevarlo a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos”. “Para ese momento, ya mi esposo tenía dañado los riñones, necesitaba diálisis y además tenía comprometidos todos sus órganos. Solo se nos permitía verlo de 4 a 5 de la tarde y por ello nos turnábamos sus hijos y yo, para verlo”.
El doloroso relato de Beatriz de Martínez da cuenta que “casi en seguida él perdió la conciencia. Le hicieron unas tres transfusiones de sangre. Sufrió varios infartos y sólo resistió una diálisis. Murió el 12 de diciembre 2018”.
Denegación de justicia
Desde que fue detenido hasta el momento en que murió más de un año después, nunca tuvo ni siquiera la audiencia preliminar, aun cuando el día de su detención y la del también exministro Eulogio Delpino, el fiscal General de la República que nombró la Constituyente, Tarek William Saab, lo anunció públicamente, con video incluido, diciendo que estaba comprobado el sobreprecio en muchos contratos.
Arias de Martínez asegura que “de lo que sí había pruebas suficientes era para demostrar la inocencia de mi esposo y la de los seis gerentes de CITGO”, quizá por ello nunca lo presentaron ante el tribunal.
Tampoco hubo ni una sola mención por parte del Gobierno o del Ministerio Público ante el bochornoso caso. Aun si Martínez era responsable de los hechos
Mucho menos se aplicaron sanciones contra los funcionarios responsables de la Dirección de Contrainteligencia Militar, quienes tenían al exministro y expresidente de PDVSA bajo su custodia.
Nelson Martínez murió “dejando a su familia destrozada, todos los sueños destruidos por la ambición de quien al fin logró lo que quería, perdidos los 40 años dedicados a PDVSA y al país con pasión y honestidad y sin la esperanza de lograr justicia con este gobierno de hipócritas, mentirosos y cobardes. Es la verdad”, finaliza diciendo su esposa Beatriz Arias de Martínez.
En una de sus diarias intervenciones en televisión, nicolás maduro, hablando de un miércoles “productivo” en un país cuya economía está quebrada, con una caída acumulada del 62% del producto interno bruto, hablando de una producción que no existe, de una épica que no es tal, en el país-bodegón, anunció la extensión de las actividades, por seis meses más, de la comisión privatizadora de PDVSA Alí Rodríguez Araque.
En su intervención, con la “plana mayor de la revolución”, no hubo balance, no se presentaron planes, tampoco informe de gestión, mucho menos, resultados.
El ministro tareck el aissami, hace referencia al éxito de la reunión del Comité Técnico de la OPEP, el JMMC por sus siglas en inglés, del pasado 19 de agosto, donde se comprobó el cumplimiento del 97% del recorte de la producción de la OPEP+, y aprovecha para adular a nicolás por su “liderazgo” ante la OPEP, liderazgo que será “recordado siempre”. Pero la realidad es muy distinta. No dice tareck, que Venezuela NO participa de los recortes de la OPEP, está fuera de la política de cuotas porque no tiene nada que recortar, la producción de petróleo en el país ha venido en caída libre desde 2015. No dice el ministro que el último informe de la OPEP del mes de julio, reporta la producción de petróleo venezolano en tan solo 339 mil barriles día, la misma que teníamos hace 90 años, en 1930, durante la dictadura de Juan Vicente Gómez. Un retroceso criminal que evidencia una caída de la producción, en tan sólo 6 años, de 2 millones 644 mil barriles día de petróleo, 88% menos en comparación con la producción de 3,015 millones de barriles día de petróleo en diciembre de 2013. Un desastre.
Ciertamente, la OPEP no olvidará al gobierno de maduro, pues éste ha logrado destruir nuestra industria petrolera, algo no sólo absurdo sino inimaginable. Hoy día, Venezuela está en el sótano de la OPEP, pasamos de ser, en 2008, el cuarto país productor de la Organización, a ocupar el noveno lugar hoy día, solo superamos a Gabón, Congo, Guinea Ecuatorial y Libia, en producción. Aunque maduro proclame que en estos momentos, Venezuela tiene “un liderazgo vital”; la realidad es que, hoy día, a nadie en la OPEP le importa lo que diga o haga Venezuela, con una producción de tan solo 339 mil barriles día –un 1,47%, de los 23,17 millones que producen los países de la Organización–, y con unos ministros que no son capaces de decir o hacer nada que le importe al mercado petrolero internacional, salvo ser un caso de estudio del desastre injustificado en que han convertido a la industria. Los últimos ministros de petróleo del país, asdrúbal, quevedo y ahora tareck, son la expresión más genuina de la profunda crisis que afecta al sector y al país.
Le recomiendo al ministro de petróleo y a la “plana mayor de la revolución” que, si quieren saber qué es lo que está pasando en la OPEP, consulten mi Boletín Petrolero, es público, se pueden suscribir en mi blog www.rafaelramirez.net. Lo pueden hacer en privado, sin que maduro se entere.
Por su parte, maduro, que no se cansa de burlarse de la memoria de Chávez; y, lo más grave, de destruir su obra, en un acto de profundo cinismo reivindica la política petrolera del Presidente Chávez, la misma política que su gobierno ha desbaratado y convertido en polvo cósmico con sus decretos y leyes entreguistas, como el Decreto 3.068, la entrega de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco, del gas y la destrucción de la PDVSA Roja Rojita, la PDVSA del pueblo.
Una de las causas fundamentales de la terrible crisis económica que azota al pueblo venezolano, ha sido la destrucción de PDVSA y la entrega del petróleo y el gas al capital privado nacional y transnacional, es decir, la derogación de facto de la Política de Plena Soberanía Petrolera. Lo hemos dicho desde el inicio del gobierno de maduro, desde distintas posiciones, hasta salir al exilio: tras la muerte del Presidente Chávez y el ascenso de maduro al gobierno, arribaron al poder grupos económicos dispuestos a descuajar la patria para hacerse de sus restos, como sucedió con el gobierno de Boris Yeltzin en la antigua Unión Soviética.
La élite política que asaltó el poder, agrupada en lo que ahora se conoce como el madurismo, ha aplicado una política de choque de tal intensidad y violencia contra el pueblo venezolano, que ha logrado lo que siempre fue un imposible para la derecha tradicional del país: desbaratar al Chavismo, derogar sus conquistas económicas, políticas y sociales, y arrebatarle al país la soberanía económica, el manejo de sus recursos naturales, como el petróleo, el gas y el oro.
En sus palabras con respecto a la OPEP+, el madurismo se contradice con su discurso al país. Mientras que, tanto maduro como su ministro, reconocen que el petróleo es “fundamental” para la recuperación de la economía mundial, en Venezuela reivindican absurdamente el “fin” del petróleo, proclamando que han “superado el modelo rentista petrolero”, como una manera de justificar su desastroso manejo de PDVSA, cuando lo que hicieron, fue quitarle el oxígeno al país, destrozando la industria petrolera, saqueando al Arco Minero y dejando al país dependiente de las remesas de los muchachos (muchos brillantes profesionales y técnicos de PDVSA), que tuvieron que irse de la patria.
En su ya acostumbrada retórica de aguaje “antiimperialista”, maduro asegura cínicamente que el petróleo es de los venezolanos y que “jamás será del imperialismo norteamericano”; sin embargo, la realidad es otra, para la historia quedan sus expresiones lamentables y la entusiasta invitación a las transnacionales del petróleo y el gas, “aquí los recibimos con los brazos abiertos”, triste frase acuñada en el mismo momento de entregar el gas de Oriente a la Shell y el gas del Proyecto Mariscal Sucre a la Rosneft y a las transnacionales que operan en Trinidad y Tobago, o la entrega de nuestra participación y control de las mejores áreas de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco, PetroSinovensa y PetroMonagas, a las empresas chinas y rusas, o los acuerdos firmados con la “Sargen Marine” y un largo etc., pasando por los desatinos políticos en su relación frustrada con el “camarada Trump” y un sinfín de ejemplos de su incoherencia entre el discurso y los hechos.
Luego, tanto maduro como su ministro, y asdrúbal, le hablan a la “clase trabajadora”, la utilizan y tratan de manipular, cuando no solo los distintos administradores del madurismo al frente de PDVSA la ha perseguido y mantienen encarcelado-secuestrados por cientos a los trabajadores, sino que les arrebataron su Fondo de Pensiones, eliminaron el seguro Sicoprosa y los mantienen con salarios de miseria, tratando de manipularlos con una caja Clap.
Nó, nicolás, la realidad es que los trabajadores petroleros están movilizándose, luchando por sus derechos, no te tienen miedo y te retan a una asamblea contigo, no para que salgas con tus excusas y acusaciones de siempre, sino para que le des la cara y soluciones. Tendrías que dar la cara a los trabajadores petroleros, a los de Corpoelec, a los de las Empresas Básicas, a los de la administración pública, pero no utilizando a tus sicarios, ni a tus grupos proto-fascistas, sindicalistas corruptos, que han destruido al movimiento obrero venezolano y permitido que les arrebataran años de conquistas económicas y sociales. Tienes muchas cuentas pendientes con el pueblo Chavista, con los trabajadores y con todo el país, por eso, no sales de tu mundo de fantasía, de la burbuja donde te mantienen tus aduladores.
No podía culminar maduro su intervención sin las acusaciones de siempre. “Contra el burocratismo, la corrupción y los infiltrados…”. maduro tiene ya 6 años hablando de lo mismo, las mismas excusas, las mismas acusaciones, el mismo odio, es el discurso para los maduristas. Arremete contra la palabra “rojo rojito”, contra el Che, contra los trabajadores, ahora se siente cómodo mostrando su alianza con la burguesía madurista.
Más peligroso que maduro, son los maduristas. Traidores a Chávez, al pueblo, a nuestro proyecto Bolivariano, enajenados en su carácter crítico o contestatario prefieren aplaudir y seguir ‘lo que maduro diga”, sin preguntar, sin ver a los lados, sin darse cuenta de las ruinas en que han convertido nuestra patria. Callando ante el paquetazo de derecha del equipo económico de maduro, ante la entrega del petróleo y el gas, ante la privatización de PDVSA, ante el desastre del Arco Minero, ante los crímenes de las FAES, ante la prisión de los trabajadores, de Rodríguez Torres, la desaparición de Carlos Lanz.
Ya resulta grotesco el odio de maduro hacia la PDVSA del pueblo, la Roja Rojita. Cuando pronuncia estas palabras le brota el odio, no puede controlarlo, porque le recuerda que traicionó a Chávez, que su gobierno acabó con la PDVSA del pueblo, la que dirigimos nosotros por tantos años al lado del Presidente Chávez, porque le salta el recuerdo de lo que era la PDVSA bastión de la soberanía. maduro sufre del odio de los traidores hacia sus antiguos compañeros o ideas, trata de extirparlos de su recuerdo. No podría verle a los ojos a Chávez, no podría debatir conmigo, no puede darle la cara al pueblo.
Al final de todo lo que ha pasado y han hecho con PDVSA, con nuestra Política Petrolera, con los trabajadores, con el país, con la Patria de la que habló el Comandante Chávez, lo que está claro, es que el único infiltrado aquí has sido tú nicolás, te lo dirían los trabajadores petroleros en tu propia cara, tú eres el infiltrado, los burócratas y corruptos los pusiste tú en PDVSA y en todo el gobierno, insaciables, grotescos.
Puedes perseguir a quien quieras. Puedes crear fake news, falsos positivos. Tú y los tuyos, los que hoy te aplauden y participan de este desastre eran, y siempre fueron, los infiltrados en la revolución, los tareck, los asdrúbal, los wills rangel, los hermanos rodríguez, todos los que te rodean y que no pueden levantar la mirada, ni dar la cara, siempre mirando a los lados, tratando de escapar del fantasma de Chávez.
Iba camino de miraflores cuando una voz que parecía salir del Cuartel de la Montaña lo increpo:¿Quo vadis Diosdado, por ´que dejas que falsifiquen milegado?
Es inocultable la honda crisis de fractura que el madurismo padece, los que ayer eran maduristas acérrimos, con programas de televisión, membrecía en la constituyente hoy saltan por la popa, y por la proa brincan los acomodados más avisados que sienten que este cuento se acabó, por estribor y por babor lo hacen los que descubrieron la estafa. Los agónicos llamados a la unidad no son dique que contenga el derrumbe, sólo anuncian el deterioro. En este paisaje regresa diosdado de su enfermedad, viene menguado físicamente, es comprensible, y regresa políticamente debilitado en una encrucijada que le exige definición y decisión. Veamos.
Sus compañeros de promoción fueron pasados a retiro, indudablemente perdió fuerza militar. Asimismo la constituyente, “poder por sobre todos los poderes”, en los últimos días ha sufrido duros golpes que le hicieron perder majestad y vigor, se han fugados constituyentitas que eran emblemáticos y esto causó un descubrimiento de que la Constituyente estaba desnuda, sólo había servido de sicario del madurismo, no había cumplido ni un milímetro de su deber y de las promesas, y además pasará a la historia por unas leyes de dudosa reputación. Para colmo el copresidente decreta su disolución, y diosdado el presidente del cuerpo, recibe órdenes en público dejando ver la dependencia de miraflores y lo precario de su mandato. Así viene diosdado disminuido en lo militar y en lo civil.
La inocultable pelea en el bergantín (barco pirata) del madurismo limita con el motín, los luceros tratan desesperados de tapar las grietas del casco sin mucho éxito. La situación de diosdado en esa escaramuza es incierta. Se puede barruntar que cuenta con el apoyo, por ahora, del copresidente, se puede aventurar que tiene aún fuerza militar, hasta se puede pensar que conserva influencia en el mal trecho partido, pero no sabemos cuál será su próximo movimiento, sólo caben conjeturas.
Puede diosdado pasar sin pena ni gloria, pasivo esperar que otros decidan su futuro, quizá cansado termine en una embajada en Centro América; o puede ser activo, reaccionar para cumplir su destino ¿Cuál destino? El que espera de él el Comandante Chávez: “que sea leal de verdad verdad a su pensamiento”, que bastante lo conoce, que suficiente sabe cuando y quienes lo falsifican, que no permita que este desastre en que convirtieron su obra sea recordado como chavismo por las generaciones futuras, que se sepa que hubo quien, como el 4 de febrero, levantó una bandera de dignidad.
Diosdado tuvo varias oportunidades históricas de ser verdadero chavista, está es la última, nadie puede actuar por él, sólo él puede decidir con su conducta cómo pasará su nombre a la historia, como un centauro digno de 4 de febrero, del juramento del Samán de Güere, o permitirá que el Comandante Chávez sea crucificado de nuevo.
Ojalá por el bien de todos y por el bien de su alma, en esta oportunidad diosdado se yerga sobre su propia historia y se transforme, ahora si, en leyenda revolucionaria, en ese empeño, estamos seguro contara con los modestos esfuerzos de lo mejor de este pueblo…
¡Salve Chávez los que van a defenderte te saludan!
“Lo que maduro diga” se volvió el lema, no del pensamiento único, lo que ya sería malo, sino de la insensatez única, el símbolo del despeñadero del país. Es asombroso como estos cinco de la cúpula del madurismo llevan al país a la disolución, lo estafan con la mayor desfachatez. Veamos.
En la última intervención el copresidente maduro anuncia el fin de la constituyente en el próximo diciembre y el triunfo en la elección de la asamblea. Actúa como el gran elector de la comarca, atropella a la constituyente, órgano que nos presentaron como plenipotenciario, un suprapoder y lo disuelven sin haberse reunido, sin consultarlo, y allí nadie dice nada, embarrando de borreguismo a todos sus miembros, pasa por encima de la junta directiva, y para colmo no anuncian su disolución en un acto en la plenaria sino en una intervención como una noticia más y le da tres meses para que arreglen sus maletas. Descaro grande, pero mayor será cuando un grueso de constituyentes vayan de candidatos para la asamblea… el oportunismo no tiene escrúpulos.
Allá los constituyentistas que carguen con la deshonra de haber pertenecido a un cuerpo indolente, cuando han podido cambiar la historia del país.
Se va la constituyente y nos deja un país postrado: sin moneda, se comieron el oro del Banco Central, acabaron con la PDVSA roja rojita, con las Universidades, la inflación es record mundial, el éxodo es millonario, el mundo se asombra de como la cúpula de los cinco, la constituyente consiguieron desmantelar un país en tan corto tiempo, no hay precedentes en la historia universal de un país arrasado por sus propios miembros.
Lo sorprendente es la poca reacción del país, unos esperan que los ayuden a salir del gobierno, que fuerzas extranjeras hagan el mandado, corran los riesgos y le entreguen a ellos la administración de la colonia. Otros callan de manera criminal, ante el derrumbe de la Patria miran para otro lado y agarran sus puestico, y eluden su responsabilidad con la masa que tanto los apoyó. La masa sin vanguardia no reacciona, deambula su soledad, sobrevive depredando al prójimo. Son días oscuros, tenebrosos.
Solo queda el consuelo, la esperanza de que toda crisis es revolucionaria y esta es una crisis de inmensa proporciones, de ella debe surgir una Revolución vigorosa. En algún lugar se estará gestando la respuesta a esta cúpula corrosiva, siempre creemos junto a Martí:
“…Hay hombres que viven contentos aunque vivan sin decoro. Hay otros que padecen como en agonía cuando ven que los hombres viven sin decoro a su alrededor. En el mundo ha de haber cierta cantidad de decoro, como ha de haber cierta cantidad de luz. Cuando hay muchos hombres sin decoro, hay siempre otros que tienen en sí el decoro de muchos hombres. Esos son los que se rebelan con fuerza terrible contra los que les roban a los pueblos su libertad, que es robarles a los hombres su decoro. En esos hombres van miles de hombres, va un pueblo entero, va la dignidad humana. Esos hombres son sagrados.”
En algún lugar estamos seguros están estos hombre sagrados donde se concentra el decoro, estos gigantes con una acción viril despertarán de nuevo al pueblo y Bolívar y Chávez volverán a caminar orgullosos por su Patria liberada de la infamia…
¡Habló Maduro!, la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente termina en diciembre https://www.aporrea.org/imprime/n358063.html . Esto ha sido el tono que ha marcado el gobierno desde hace 7 años, nadie lo puede negar ahora. Culpar a otros de los errores cometidos es injusto con los otros, si descontamos la sumisión, la obediencia nerviosa y ciega de esos otros. Creo que en algún momento iba a quedar totalmente expuesto el hecho de ser el presidente quién decide, sobre casi todo y por encima de los otros poderes. Pronto le tocará a la fiscalía y le llegará su momento a Tarek William; llegará el momento de convertir la fiscalía general de la República y el tsj en dos direcciones del ministerio de Justicia.
Maduro le tiene tanto respeto a la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente como el que ella se merece. Es sorprendente que Néstor Francia se sorprenda ahora, “¡Sorpresa camaradas!!, trabajan hasta diciembre” ¿Dónde estaría Francia en todos estos años, que se asombra por la decisión de Maduro?
A nosotros nos sorprende más bien la naturalidad con la cual el gobierno toma decisiones sobre un estado chueco, realmente torcido, como si acabar a dedo, con una petición presidencial, con un órgano que se define como soberano y plenipotenciario fuera lógico, como si lo ilógico fuera normal. Maduro se dijo a sí mismo (y lo consultó con Diosdado) que ya no valen los disimulos jurídicos; ya no es necesario el señor Hermann Escarrá para darle forma legal a los disparates del ejecutivo, de las contradicciones del gobierno. Por eso será despedido en diciembre, para que Maduro asuma él solo el control de gobierno (sólo el gobierno, no las responsabilidades, eso nunca), sin muchas razones y justificaciones, ¡como debe ser!… “Tanto nadar –señores constituyentes – para morir en la orilla”.
Creo que es sano que toda esta mazamorra institucional cobre forma, así sea de dictadura, que haya claridad, que no se siga confundiendo el origen de donde emanan las órdenes del verdadero poder; el bien con el mal. Ya no podemos decir que fue la ANC la responsable de la redacción de aquella famosa y anticonstitucional “Ley de inversiones extranjeras”, fue Maduro y su equipo de gobierno. A los constituyentes solo se los puede culpar de pendejos facilitadores.
En comparación, Chávez sí creyó en que se debía modificar el Estado, por lo menos lo intentó, redactó leyes, hizo una constitución democrática más avanzada, más socialista. Su esfuerzo dejó una huella clara.
Sin embargo Maduro siempre hizo todo escondido, escudándose con Chávez o con legalismos torcidos, como esa ANC, que según dicen, fue una manera de frenar la violencia (fue un pequeño golpe que disolvió el Estado). Para nosotros ese pequeño golpe de Estado no nos hubiera avergonzado si hubiese sido acompañado de revolución y de pueblo, pero fue ejecutado para continuar con un plan de restauración del capitalismo de siempre, pero con otros actores, con esa sociedad subterránea de oportunistas, de arribistas emergentes, que abandonaron el socialismo antes y después de la muerte de Chávez. Lo inmoral no es el golpe, lo inmoral es la traición al socialismo y a Chávez.
La calidad del gobierno de Maduro es la misma que la de sus empleados y cómplices, ya es tarde para disculparse y pedir perdón, aunque los que se suponen son socialistas no lo hayan hecho aún. La reacción más fuerte ( “provocada” más que espontanea), ha sido la del constituyente Néstor Francia, pero él no ha tenido problemas con colocarse por encima del bien y el mal, del capitalismo y del socialismo, y declararse, al igual que Maduro, como una conciliador, un pacifista pragmático, reformista del capitalismo, un adeco más (en el fondo su problema es haberse quedado sin empleo… pero eso es un chisme). Lo importante es hacer notar el carácter pragmático de los políticos que nos gobiernan, o más bien, su falta de carácter, desde que no precisan bien sus objetivos y no son capaces de admitir lo útil que les resulta esta ambigüedad, a fin de dejarse llevar por sus inclinaciones e instintos. Quedaron –como se dice – desnudos. Todos, tanto Maduro como sus seguidores y leales de siempre se quitaron las vestimentas revolucionarias (todos los “ismos”, como dice el diputado); uno por acción y los demás por ser tan pasivos y obedientes a cualquier jefe.
La ANC pasó sin que nos diéramos cuenta, insulsa; manipulada por Maduro (Diosdado, Pedro Carreño y los Rodríguez) para sus fines prácticos de restaurar el libre mercado, el capitalismo, por más que lo niegue o lo disfrace de esfuerzos y sacrificios, de revolución, o de resistencia. La ANC, rellena de 545 diputados, no fue capaz ni siquiera de disentir (con las mismas excepciones de siempre: Britto García y Julio Escalona); pareciera que la mayoría de sus diputados supieron de antemano su papel de notarios para las políticas del gobierno, sin chistar. Y hoy esto se confirma, tanto por la decisión de Maduro de clausurarla, cual un Joaquín Balaguer cualquiera (no sé por qué se nos parece tanto Maduro al viejo dictador dominicano), como por las confesiones de Francia (la pregunta es: ¿además de ese proyecto de participación popular que le engavetaron, qué hizo el diputado Francia todos estos años, además de refrendar todo lo hecho por Maduro, cuántas denuncias hizo, cuánta resistencia hizo?) https://www.aporrea.org/imprime/n358069.html.
El caso de estos diputados es insólito: confesar la mecánica voluntariosa del gobierno de Maduro después de 7 años de haberlo apoyado… ¡han perdido la vergüenza!
Pasa el tiempo, y cuando no se cree en nada, la única explicación para el cinismo es más cinismo y decir que así somos los seres humanos, que la carne es débil, que yo quise pero no pude… Definitivamente Chávez en comparación con estos seres cansados, fue un duro, no nada más defendiendo su discurso, sus ideas incómodas, también peleando por ellas; de haber vivido hoy hubiese intentado asaltar Miraflores hace rato.
¡Volvamos al espíritu de lucha de Chávez! ¡Patria Socialista o muerte!
Con el anuncio hecho por maduro de que la Constituyente se “disolvía” este mes de diciembre se consuma un fraude a la Constitución y al pueblo, el FRAUDE CONSTITUYENTE. maduro actúa como un reyezuelo, como “Yo el Supremo” de Roa Bastos, abrogándose una autoridad y un prestigio que no tiene; conduce al país “como le da la gana”, mientras, utilizando a la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana y a un psuv enajenado, le ha impuesto al pueblo venezolano el peor paquete de “shock” económico de derecha, revirtiendo no sólo los avances y conquistas alcanzadas con el Presidente Chávez, sino, incluso, las pocas conquistas del pueblo durante el período de la IV República.
Bajo la vergonzosa consigna de que aquí se hace “lo que maduro diga”, impuesta en el último “congreso” del PSUV, cuyo objetivo era la postulación de maduro como único candidato del partido para las elecciones presidenciales de 2018, a la vez que se expulsaba del partido, como sucedió conmigo, cualquier disidencia dentro de las filas del chavismo.
A partir de ese cisma que se produjo en el chavismo, dentro del espectro político tomó fuerza y forma por primera vez lo que hemos denominado “el madurismo”: un conjunto variopinto de personajes, desde empresarios, férreos opositores a Chávez, dirigentes políticos de vieja data, periodistas y poetas bohemios y alcoholizados, hasta ex comandantes rebeldes, caracterizados por una insospechada sumisión y subordinación a los dictámenes de maduro y los 5 gatos que manejan el país.
El madurismo como expresión política más acabada, se concretaba así en la acción del gobierno caracterizada por favorecer los intereses de una burguesía madurista ascendente y ávida de riquezas y poder, un gobierno de derecha profundamente antipopular y de su partido “Somos Venezuela”, un partido amorfo y difuso creado como una franquicia de los hermanos rodríguez.
El madurismo es la concreción en el poder de las fuerzas de derecha que siempre estuvieron agazapadas en el seno del chavismo y que, se conocían en el ámbito político como “la derecha endógena” y “el chavismo sin Chávez”.
Es en este período de reconfiguración de fuerzas y clara definición del madurismo como expresión política, es que se instala la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente. Ésta vendría a convertirse en un espacio donde se aprobarían las leyes y decretos que echaban por tierra las principales conquistas económicas y sociales de la Revolución Bolivariana, una de ellas, y la más importante sin duda, la Plena Soberanía Petrolera. El gobierno necesitaba, en medio de un ambiente de confrontación violenta en la calle, un espacio donde se pudieran concretar aspectos que eran parte de la negociación política en República Dominicana con factores de la oposición, es decir, utilizando una vía aparentemente constitucional, vale decir, la Constituyente; y, peor aún, invocando al Poder Originario del pueblo, el madurismo aprovechó el caos del país para emitir en su seno, leyes y decretos inconstitucionales, lesivos a la Soberanía Nacional, aprobados sin la discusión que hubiese tenido que darse en el seno de una Asamblea Nacional, fuera ésta de la composición política que fuera.
Es decir, en el seno de la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, primero, presidida por delcy rodríguez; y, luego, por Diosdado Cabello, se fueron aprobando leyes como: “la Ley de la Promoción y protección de la inversión extranjera en Venezuela”, una ley para establecer un “nuevo régimen para los inversionistas”, la cual cede nuestra Soberanía Jurisdiccional, aprobando de manera expedita el mecanismo inconstitucional del arbitraje internacional de inversiones, exigencia esta hecha por las transnacionales del oro y del petróleo; un nuevo régimen tributario para el “desarrollo soberano” del Arco Minero del Orinoco; el Decreto 3.068 mediante el cual se daba luz verde para que quevedo hiciera “lo que considerara necesario” en el manejo de la industria petrolera, otorgando un poder absolutamente ilegal a quevedo, abriendo la puerta a la privatización de la empresa y la aprobación de los “contratos de servicios petroleros”, en una mala copia de la “apertura petrolera”, saltándose todos los procedimientos, leyes y procesos licitatorios para con la contratación y adquisición de bienes y servicios en PDVSA y un largo etcétera, cuya consecuencia real, ha sido el colapso de nuestra producción petrolera, que nos ha llevado a niveles de producción hoy día de sólo 339 mil barriles dia de petróleo, equivalentes a los que teníamos en 1930, cuando en el país señoreaba Juan Vicente Gómez. Igualmente, la ANC aprobó la exención de impuestos hecha por maduro a las empresas petroleras, así como la entrega del gas Costa Afuera en el oriente del país, a las transnacionales petroleras.
¿Cómo sucedió esto en el seno de la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente?¿Qué motivó a que dirigentes políticos y militares de tanta trayectoria, incluso, que estuvieron con el gobierno del Presidente Chávez, escritores, poetas, bohemios, periodistas, militares, ex guerrilleros, para que hubiesen claudicado en su responsabilidad de preservar las conquistas del pueblo venezolano, las cuales, como decía el Comandante Chávez en lo relativo a la materia petrolera, nos costaron tanta lucha, tanto sacrificio, golpe de Estado, Sabotaje Petrolero y la muerte de venezolanos por la violenta reacción de la derecha en el país? No los juzgo, los juzgará la historia y el pueblo de Venezuela.
Todavía como Embajador ante la ONU, lo advertí en mi artículo “La Línea Roja”, lo cual me costó, junto a mi permanente defensa de la Plena Soberanía Petrolera, ser víctima de una feroz campaña de linchamiento moral y persecución política por parte de maduro y su fiscal sicario, una campaña que se ha llevado por el medio la obra, la reputación, los logros y los éxitos innegables alcanzados durante la gestión petrolera, que me correspondió desarrollar por 12 largos años como Ministro de Petróleo y Presidente de Petróleos de Venezuela, durante el gobierno del Presidente Chávez, gestión que contó, como es hecho público y notorio, permanentemente con su pleno respaldo.
Ya desde el exilio, ya era evidente para mí y tenía información precisa de,de que el gobierno de maduro consumaría la entrega de la Soberanía Económica en el área petrolera, el único sector estratégico y en disputa en el país; y, suponiendo que el silencio de la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente se debía a falta de conocimiento, continué alertando y comunicándome directamente con compañeros dentro de la misma sobre lo que estaba pasando; incluso publiqué un artículo “maduro entrega el petróleo mientras Diosdado aplaude”, donde explicaba lo que estaba sucediendo en el sector petrolero, y lo único que obtuve de Diosdado, fue una respuesta grosera, ofensiva e innecesaria en su programa de animación, donde prefirió poner de lado el análisis reflexivo de lo que le estaba advirtiendo a él como Presidente de la ANC, para romper lanzas en apoyo a su amigo quevedo.
Hoy, cuando maduro anuncia que “se disuelve la ANC” en diciembre, lo cual es un claro indicativo de que maduro sabe que va a controlar la Asamblea Nacional, en unas elecciones en la que hemos dicho que no se debe participar, cierran un parapeto fraudulento y de paso, sacan del medio, a una cantidad importante de cuadros políticos que ya fueron usados y son hoy desechados.
Me produce una mezcla de indignación y tristeza lo que ha sido la actuación de los Constituyentistas y cómo se han prestado a la consumación de este fraude a la Constitución , sobre todo porque habiendo estado algunos de ellos en la Constituyente de Chávez y redactado y discutido ampliamente de cara al país la Constitución de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela, pudieron guardar un vergonzoso silencio ante este fraude, con excepción de algunos tímidos, muy tímidos intentos de discusión, que rápidamente fueron extirpados de su seno. Todos recordamos el caso de Isaías Rodríguez, político venezolano a quien respeto, sobre todo por su actuación valiente durante el Golpe de Estado contra el Presidente Chávez, quien, como Fiscal denunció que se consumaba un acto contra la Constitución. Al mismo Isaías, luego como vicepresidente de la ANC, se le ocurrió tan solo declarar, que la misma debía discutir el tema económico, lo cual, obviamente, era el meollo del problema, para que de una vez fuese atropellado por los voceros del madurismo y tratado con deshonor, lo sacaron de la Asamblea y lo devolvieron a una Embajada. También recuerdo algunas opiniones muy tibias de ex guerrilleros famosos, como la de Julio Escalona, pero nada más que eso, comentarios tibios. Quien sí asumió el protagonismo en la Constituyente fue Hermann Escarrá, el mismo que profirió graves insultos y amenazas al Presidente Chávez en su momento, convertido en vocero del madurismo, hablando de la “nueva Constitución” que él redactaba y que, por supuesto, nunca se discutió, y aún “es secreta”. Da pena ahora escuchar a algunos Constituyentistas lamentarse de que se sienten utilizados por maduro y que se enteraron por televisión o tuiter, como seguramente sucedió con todos, que “estaban disueltos por maduro”.
El fraude constituyente ameritaría muchos artículos para hablar de cómo se violaron el espíritu y los principios y valores de la Constitución, y cómo se impuso por encima de ella un cuerpo basado en el engaño y la manipulación del pueblo chavista que salió a votar ingenuamente, para elegir a los Constituyentistas; pero, más que un problema de orden legal, en un país donde no existe la legalidad, el fraude constituyente, es una vergüenza y una muestra más del desprecio que tienen por la Constitución los 5 que han llevado el país al abismo; el desprecio por Chávez y su legado, el mismo que tienen por el pueblo.
Han barrido el piso con un principio sagrado, que es donde reside la Soberanía del País, como es el Principio de que el poder originario reside en el pueblo, lo han convertido en un guiñapo, junto a la historia de todos esos Constituyentistas que se prestaron para esta farsa.
Conozco hombres y mujeres honestos que han participado como Constituyentistas en este proceso, sé de sus esfuerzos para tratar de abordar algunos temas, hoy día deben sentirse burlados y estafados por el madurismo. A todos les digo, el tiempo y los hechos me siguen dando la razón en mis denuncias y mis posturas, muchas veces incomprendidas, pero siempre hay tiempo para que rectifiquen, y se den cuenta que el madurismo y su accionar, no tienen nada que ver ni con Chávez ni con el chavismo.
Mientras maduro continúa con sus torpes astucias profundizando el daño político y moral contra los venezolanos, y arrasando con cualquier posibilidad del ejercicio pleno de la participación política del pueblo, en la esfera de lo real, donde el 90% de los venezolanos son quienes sufren, siguen sucediendo cosas muy graves.
Al efecto, nuestra industria petrolera arrasada por el madurismo ha colapsado operacionalmente: no produce petróleo, no produce gas, no produce gasolina, no produce ingresos, pero además, comete permanentes violaciones a los derechos de los trabajadores petroleros; a la vez que, su desarticulación en las líneas de mando y su inoperancia, sigue provocando incidentes operacionales que contaminan a diestra y siniestra el país, como el caso del derrame de petróleo de la Refinería El Palito, cuyas emanaciones de gases no solo están cobrando vida de los trabajadores que intentan reactivarla, sino que los más de 25.000 barriles de petróleo vertidos en las Costas de los estados Carabobo y Falcón, provocan un daño ambiental, probablemente irreversible, nada más y nada menos que al Parque Nacional Morrocoy, a toda su fauna y su flora. Todo ello, mientras que PDVSA y el Ministerio de Petróleo, indolentes, no dicen ni hacen NADA al respecto.
Como tampoco hablan de lo que sucede en nuestra industria petrolera nacional y su flota de buques, cuando Petrochina, nuestro antiguo socio en materia petrolera, le arrebata al país tres grandes tanqueros, los VLCC ““Boyacá”, “Junín” y “Carabobo”, y el gobierno cede a operadores rusos el VLCC “Ayacucho”, ahora renombrado “Maximo Gorky”. Estos buques fueron puntales de nuestra propia flota, que hasta 2013 constaba de 81 buques, y que nos permitían manejar nuestras exportaciones petroleras.
Como lo expresé en mi artículo pasado sobre las elecciones, considero que el campo patriota, progresista y chavista del país debe dejar de lado las triquiñuelas del madurismo; ellos harán “lo que maduro diga” con las elecciones para la Asamblea Nacional y con la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, pero no podemos seguir dejando que “maduro haga lo que le da la gana” con nuestro país y nuestro pueblo. Viva Chávez. ¡Venceremos!
In the first half of August, oil prices continue their trend towards the gradual recovery that began in May, when OPEC+ production cuts1 came into effect, remaining, since June 5, 2020, above the threshold of $40 per barrel. This recovery has also been influenced by the fall in production in OECD countries such as Canada and the USA, the gradual recovery in demand led by China and the rest of Asia, and the drain on inventories.
OIL PRICES (MARCH-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Own elaboration.
At the close2 of the day on Monday, August 17, the benchmark Brent and WTI rates were $45.32 and $42.44 per barrel, respectively.
After the entry into force of the OPEC+ cuts, prices have recovered: the Brent reference rate at 68% and the WTI reference rate at 112% in relation to the prices registered on May 4.
BRENT PRICE (MAY-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Bloomberg; Own elaboration.
WTI PRICE (MAY-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Bloomberg; Own elaboration.
The Behavior of Oil Price during the Week
On Friday, August 14, Brent and WTI references were quoted3 at $44.84 and $42.11 a barrel, respectively, continuing last week’s recovery, although references are still 32% below the prices of early 2020, when Brent was quoted4 at $69 a barrel and WTI $61 a barrel.
The average price of the OPEC basket for July is $43.42 per barrel, which is 15% higher than that reported at the end of June5 the highest recovery since February 2020, according to OPEC. On Monday, August 17, the basket was quoted6 at US$44.62 per barrel, an increase of 144% compared to that recorded on May 4, 2020.
OPEC BASKET PRICE (MAY-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC, in its «Monthly Oil Market Report» (MOMR), published7 on Wednesday, August 12, highlights the ongoing recovery of oil market prices during May, June and July, after a historic fall in April.
Projections
Despite the uncertainty regarding the recovery in demand and the high levels of crude oil inventory, the prices of the Brent and WTI references have remained above $40 per barrel since July. The market perceives a slow but sustained recovery of its physical fundamentals, an expectation that is reflected in the increase in the future prices of Brent and WTI.
In perspective, given the unprecedented situation of the collapse in demand and price in March-April –fundamentally due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the overproduction of oil– the prices have had since the entry into force of the OPEC+ cuts8 an extraordinary recovery of 20 and 24 dollars a barrel for Brent and WTI, respectively, 78% and 125%. The action of OPEC+ and the production cuts have once again justified the policy of intervening in the market and regulating production to defend the price of the natural resource.
OPEC’s MOMR pointed out, at the end of July, the increase in Brent and WTI quotations, by 2.45 dollars per barrel in relation to the average price in June, with the average price of Brent standing at 43.27 dollars per barrel and the average price of WTI at 40.77 dollars per barrel; with this increase, the differential between both references was reduced, standing at 2.52 dollars per barrel in July, a reduction of 60% in relation to 2019.
REDUCTION IN THE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN BRENT AND WTI
Source: OPEC MOMR.
OPEC notes in its August report that for the third consecutive month, oil futures prices rose, placing them in July 6% above the month’s average, driven by strengthening market fundamentals, as well as by the prospects for recovery in economic activity and demand for the second half of the year, as countries relax movement restrictions.
Projections9 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show an increase in its July expectations regarding the average price of Brent, placing it at $43 per barrel for the second half of 2020, and $50 per barrel for 2021, representing 7% more than the previous month’s estimates.
As for WTI, EIA expects it to remain stable during the second half of the year, averaging $39 per barrel in 2020 and projecting $46 per barrel by 2021.
RECOVERY OF THE BRENT AND WTI FUTURES (AUGUST 2019 – AUGUST 2020)
Source: Bloomberg; Nymex; Ice.
The EIA reports an increase in future prices of references Brent (+5%) and WTI (+7%), which for August are located at 45.09 and 41.95 dollars per barrel, respectively, compared to prices recorded in July.
The dollar price indexes fell to 92.8 since August, the lowest level in two years, according to the EIA.
BRENT PRICES AND US DOLLAR VALUE
Source: International Energy Administration.
According to the EIA, the price of Brent crude oil, quoted in dollars, increased11by 18% and 10% in the euro price, as a result of the depreciation of the dollar against this currency.
With regard to inflation expectations over the next five years, the EIA highlights that they have increased compared to March, when inflation expectations were almost 0%.
OIL PRICES AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE US
Source: International Energy Administration.
According to the EIA, variations in oil prices are directly related to projections of future inflation rates; as shown in the graph above, inflation projections for the next 5 years increased from 1.17% in July to 1.52% in August.
PRODUCTION
OPEC Report
According to OPEC’s «Monthly Oil Market Report» published in August12, world oil production in July stood at 83.67 million barrels per day, a drop of 11% in supply compared to average production in the first quarter of the year, which corresponds to the coming into effect of OPEC+ cuts as of May 1st.
Oil supply from OPEC countries was 23.17 million barrels per day in July, representing 26% of world oil production.
At the end of the first half of 2020, oil supply from non-OPEC producers fell by 6 million barrels a day, of which 1.82 million barrels a day corresponded to the voluntary production cut by the 10 countries that signed the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), while the remaining 4.6 million barrels a day of oil (60% of the total amount) was related to the drop in production by countries outside the DoC.
World production of oil and oil products, according to OPEC, was 88.8 million barrels per day in July, of which 23.2 million barrels are related to OPEC oil production and 5.09 million barrels per day corresponded to NGL and condensates.
GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION (4th Quarter 2018 – 2nd Quarter 2020)
Source: Own preparation, with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports 2018-2020.
Regarding the estimates for the third quarter, OPEC highlights that production will start to increase during the month of August, due to the easing of OPEC+ production cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day and the increase in production by the US and Canada, estimating that, by the third quarter of the year, world oil production will reach 86.16 million barrels per day.
EIA and IEA estimates
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates13 that oil production in the third quarter of 2020 will be 90 million barrels per day.
WORLD LIQUID FUELS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION (2015-2021)
Source: «Short-Term Energy Outlook» (STEO), Energy Information Administration (EIA)
As for projections for 2021, on the one hand, the EIA forecasts14 that production will be approximately 99 million barrels per day. Although global oil demand is expected to increase gradually, the recovery in production will be limited by the significant reduction of investment in new exploration.
On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that world oil supply will fall by 7 million barrels a day by 2020, for an average production of 88 million barrels a day –2% less than the EIA forecast– and an increase of 1.6 million barrels a day by 2021.
Worldwide drilling activity
The number of drilling rigs worldwide has fallen significantly, the firm Baker Hughes, in its report15International Rig Count, recorded for July 743 active drills, a figure that reflects the continued decline since the beginning of the year, when it located 1,078 drilling units, a fall of 31% compared to the records of December 2019.
GLOBALLY ACTIVE DRILLS (January 2019 – August 2020)
Source: Baker Hughes data in its International Rig Count report; Own elaboration.
The regions affected the most by the reduction in active drills, according to data published on August 7 by Baker Hughes, are Latin America (-102), Africa (-84) and the Middle East (-81).
DRILL REDUCTION 2020 MOST AFFECTED COUNTRIES
Source: Data Baker Hughes, Own elaboration.
OPEC countries
OPEC countries’ production, as reported in the July Monthly Oil Report, stood at 23.17 million barrels per day, an increase of 980,000 barrels per day of oil, with respect to June, due to the fact that once the extension of the production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day for July was agreed upon in OPEC+, the monarchies of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates-UAE and Kuwait) ceased the additional cuts to the production quotas these countries had made in June. In other words, during July, the monarchies adjusted their production quotas to those agreed within OPEC+.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE continue to exercise leadership within the organization in terms of production volumes, as they are, together with Iraq, the only nations within the organization whose production exceeds two million barrels of oil per day. On the other hand, the production17 in Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, and Venezuela, is under the 400 thousand barrels of oil per day.
Out of the organization’s 13 member countries, 4 of them (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait) are making the greatest efforts to reduce oil supply, with a combined cut of 3.6 million barrels per day in July production compared18to April 18, 2020, in order to comply with OPEC+ agreements. Meanwhile, 6 other OPEC nations (Algeria, Angola, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria) cut a combined 750,000 barrels per day of oil in the same period.
For their part, Libya, Iran, and Venezuela are not signatories to the OPEC+ agreements, so they were exempted from the production cuts.
However, Libya and Venezuela show in July 2020 a significant fall of -90% and -88%, respectively, in their oil production in relation to the average volume registered19 in 2014.
Regarding Iran, the other non-signatory to the agreement, this country fell in its production by more than 50% with respect to the average20 in 2018, and in July of 2020, it was below 2 million barrels of oil per day, as a result of the sanctions21 applied by the United States to this country in 2018.
OPEC COUNTRIES’ PRODUCTION RANKING (July 2020)
Source: Own preparation with data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020.
In the cases of Iraq, Nigeria, and Angola, these countries are expected to compensate22for the 70% shortfalls in production agreed by OPEC+ in previous months, as announced in successive declarations by the relevant authorities.
PRODUCTION IN OPEP COUNTRIES (MAY – JULY 2020)
Source: Own preparation, with data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020.
With the entry into force of the agreement to relax OPEC+ production cuts, which now stand at 7.7 million barrels per day, production in OPEC countries will continue to rise in August, with the exception of those countries that must compensate for production and those countries that, although outside of the cut agreements, continue to face severe difficulties in maintaining their oil production levels, as is the case with Iran, Libya, and Venezuela.
Non-OPEC countries
According to OPEC’s monthly report23, the production of non-OPEC countries by 2020 will average 62.11 million barrels per day; by 2021 it is expected to increase by 980,000 barrels per day, for an average of 63.10 million barrels per day.
The member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) increased their production in July by 204,000 barrels of oil per day compared to the previous month, led by Canada and the United States and driven by the recovery in prices.
OPEC and Energy Information Administration estimates24indicate that average production in OECD countries by 2020 will be 28.67 and 30.39 million barrels per day, respectively.
Oil production in the OECD countries by 2021, according to OPEC forecasts, will be driven mainly by the OECD-America countries, with 24.55 million barrels a day, while in the OECD-Europe countries it will increase to approximately 4.11 million barrels a day, driven by Norway and the UK; furthermore, OECD-Asia will increase by 590,000 barrels a day, for a total of 29.24 million barrels a day, which is 1.8 million barrels a day less than the EIA’s projections, which predict a supply of 31.04 million barrels a day.
Russia
OPEC reported that, according to preliminary data, Russia’s oil production reached 8.80 million barrels per day in July, an increase of 50,000 barrels per day, or 0.5% over June levels. For its part, the Russian Ministry of Energy recorded25 in July 9.7 million barrels a day of oil production, of which, according to OPEC’s MOMR, 800 thousand barrels a day are condensed, an amount that concurs with Russian government data.
The agreed production increase26for Russia in August, with the implementation of the current OPEC+ cuts, is 500 thousand barrels per day compared to the May-July period this year.
However, according to official statements27by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, the adjustment for August will be 400,000 barrels a day, reaching a production cut for the period August-December of 2 million barrels a day.
RUSSIA’S OIL PRODUCTION (JANUARY – JULY 2020)
NOTE: Includes condensates Source: Own elaboration, with data from the Ministry of Energy of Russia
Norway
Norway’s production for July was 1.7 million barrels of oil days, after falling to 1.54 million barrels of oil days in June, below the 1.61 million barrels of oil days forecasted for the end of the second quarter, as published28by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and as per estimates in the monthly MOMR report for August. Based on Norwegian government sources, OPEC estimates a cut of 134,000 barrel days of oil for the second half of 2020.
Exports in July stood at 1.33 million barrels of oil per day, 20% higher than the previous month’s load. Norway’s oil production in June showed a year-on-year increase of 45.8%.
USA
Oil production in the U.S. continues to fall for the fourth month in a row. According to the EIA report29of August 7, it stands at 10.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week and 17.3% from March 27.
The EIA lowers its forecast for U.S. production in 2020 to 370,000 barrels per day, for an average of 11.3 million barrels per day of oil, down 8.4% from 2019 levels and 13.1% from the record 13 million barrels per day in February and March 2020.
The EIA does not forecast an increase in US production by 2021, and estimates average production at approximately 11.1 million barrels per day.
UNITED STATES OIL PRODUCTION (2018 – 2019 – AUGUST 2020)
Source: Energy Information Management
For the first half of August, the U.S. is handling production levels that are similar to those recorded in May 2018, when its production reached 10.7 million barrels of oil per day, as a result of the increase in production of shale oil.
ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED U.S. PRODUCTION (2019 – 2021)
Source: OPEC MOMR
According to OPEC estimates, U.S. oil production will increase to 11.79 million barrels per day by 2021, higher than the EIA forecast.
North Dakota
A special publication30by EIA indicates that the drop in production in this country, between December 2019 and May 2020, is 21%; almost half of it (41.6%) corresponds to North Dakota (PADD 3).
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION BY AREA (DECEMBER 2019 – MAY 2020)
Source: «This Week in Petroleum», International Energy Agency (EIA)
This has been the area with the largest reduction in drilling activities in the U.S., going from 50 active platforms in December 2019 to only 12 active in May 2020. Between January and May 2020, the average drop in North Dakota was 1.5 million barrels per day, for a total of 615,000 barrels per day. Currently, the average number of wells in North Dakota is 12.8 thousand, a 25% reduction from the 2019 average.
ACTIVE DRILLS IN NORTH DAKOTA
Source: «This Week in Petroleum», International Energy Agency (EIA)
The EIA estimates that, for the period August 2020 to July 2021, the activity of the wells in this area will recover and reach 1.2 million barrels per day, 83% of the average recorded in 2019.
Shale Oil
The OPEC reflects in its MOMR of August the estimations of the Norwegian consulting firm Rystad Energy, which indicate that shale oil has gained momentum in July, «the US fracking has recovered by 43% in July with 464 wells, compared to June with 324 wells. The most obvious increase was in the Permian Basin, where the number of wells increased by 114%.»
Rystad Energy reports31that fracking operations reached 324 wells in June, which are only 11 platforms less than the previous month.
The Norwegian consulting firm estimates that in the third quarter of the year operations may reach the April levels, when activity was recorded in 444 shale wells, although it is still far from the 978 operated in March and the 1,243 assets in February.
Drilling activity
According to Baker Hughes’ report32North America Rig Count, the number of active oil drills in the US stood at 172, continuing the downward trend that has characterized this indicator during August.
ACTIVE DRILLING IN THE U.S.A. (MAY-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Baker Hughes; Trading Economics
ECONOMY
COVID-19
As of August 17, the World Health Organization (WHO)33reports that the number of COVID-19 infections exceeds 21 million registered cases worldwide, leaving a balance of 761,000 people dead. Data from Johns Hopkins University34 show that 13.7 million people have recovered.
For the ninth consecutive week, the United States35 and Brazil36 lead the list of infected people with 5.4 million and 3.34 million, respectively. The death toll for both nations stands at 169,860 in the U.S. and 107,879 in Brazil.
The third country with the highest number of infections is India37, with more than 2.6 million cases and 50,000 deaths. Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Colombia and Iran complete the list of the 10 countries with the most cases of coronavirus infections.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reported38 on Tuesday, August 11, that his country had registered the first vaccine against COVID-19, and then on August 15, announced the production of the first batch of Russian coronavirus vaccine, to be marketed as Sputnik V (referring to the Soviet satellite of the same name, which was the first spacecraft to be put into orbit in 1957, during the Cold War). The announcement comes shortly after the director of the Gamaleya Center, Alexandr Ginzburg, announced that by next December or January 2021 the country will produce five million doses of the vaccine per month and that within a year the country will be able to cover all the needs of distributing this antiviral.
However, the announcement has been met with skepticism by Western researchers, who warn about what they consider to be risks in rushing to create a vaccine, while requiring more information from the Russian government. For its part, the WHO received the news with caution and has asked39 Putin’s government to inform them about the process of developing Sputnik V, in order to, in the words of the executive director of the WHO’s Organic Group on Outbreaks and Health Emergencies: «…try to understand the product, know what trials it has followed and what the next steps would be.»
Economics in the OPEC MOMR
The OPEC’s MOMR forecasts40a global economic recovery, with different timescales for different countries and regions: while the large economies of the industrialized nations, including China, performed relatively better from the quarantine de-escalation and reopening efforts, for the MOMR «the economies of most emerging and developing countries are on a downward trend»; global GDP for 2020 is estimated at -4.0% (down from -3.7% the previous month). However, GDP growth for 2021 remains constant in OPEC estimates, at 4.7%.
OPEC’s analysis estimates that, globally, the pandemic could be contained -implying manageable numbers of infections- by the end of this year, and consequently, business and consumer confidence, along with associated consumption expenditure, could gradually reach «pre-COVID-19 levels» by that date.
The August OPEC’s MOMR is based on IHS Markit‘s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to show the economy’s recovery, and indicates that July’s overall PMI in the manufacturing sector rose to 50.3, from 47.9 in June, while the PMI in the service sector also rose to 50.5 in July from 48 in June.
GLOBAL PMI (JULY 2019 – JULY 2020)
Source: OPEC MOMR, July 2020
China
The forecasts for the Chinese economy remain encouraging. According to declarations41 by the Minister of the General Administration of Customs on August 12, the country’s overall merchandise exports will continue to grow, even if international trade on a global level continues to decline. Proof of this would be the growth in exports of 7.2% in July, the third increase of this indicator over the last four months.
OPEC’s July report reiterates that confidence, detailing that the 3.2% year-on-year GDP expansion during the second quarter of 2020 was driven by investment in infrastructure and real estate, the increase in the industrial and services sector; it places the weakest link in spending. On the other hand, the MOMR reflects that industrial production in China, a key factor in the recovery of oil demand, expanded by 4.8% in June compared to 2019.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN CHINA (2019-2020)
FUENTE: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics; OPEP MOMR August
Short-term estimates suggest a recovery of the Chinese economy, only threatened by the intensification of the trade war, sanctions and political tensions with the U.S. above all, as the Sino-U.S. relationship features as one of the subjects of the upcoming November presidential race in the United States.
India
The OPEC Report refers to the possibility that, in 2020, India will face the first contraction of its economy since 1979, revising downwards its GDP by -4.7%, compared to its previous estimates. For the short term, the MOMR is based on the IHS Markit PMI indicator, which fell to 46 in July for the agricultural sector, and rose to 34.2 in the same month for the service sector. OPEC estimates that the balance is leaning towards decline.
On the other hand, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, stated42that the Indian government «…should take three steps to stop the crisis and restore economic normalcy in the coming years: ensuring livelihoods and spending capacity of the population through direct cash assistance; making capital available to businesses through government-driven credit programs; and repairing of the financial sector through institutional processes and autonomy.»
Russia
The statistics agency Rosstat reported43 on August 11, that the country’s economy contracted by 8.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year, with GDP «falling in all areas except agriculture,» dropping at 79% in passenger transport and at 37.2% in the service sector. Rosstat’s prediction is in line with the forecasts of the country’s Central Bank and Vladimir Putin’s government.
According to the OPEC’s MOMR, the Russian economy has been impacted by the coronavirus crisis, with drops in industrial production (-9.4% year-on-year in June) and in the value of the ruble (-4.9% month-on-month in July, with a 20% loss against the U.S. dollar since the end of 2019). The report also refers to the recovery of raw material prices –especially the oil market, which has been supported by the OPEC Declaration of Cooperation– and its impact on the increase of Russian international reserves by US$ 22.9 billion in July, reaching US$ 590 billion. The report highlights as a stimulus measure taken by Russia the lowering of interest rates by the country’s Central Bank as a way to support recovery.
Europe
The OPEC’s MOMR reiterates previous analyses of the impact of the COVID-19 on the economies of the Eurozone nations, although the situation of States such as Spain, where infection rates have increased significantly, maintains the risk levels in the forecasts. Short-term expectations, according to the report, are linked to the COVID-19 crisis, and although they show a high possibility of recovery, part of these efforts involve trade relations with the United States. In this regard, it is reported44 that the European Union (EU) is negotiating with the Trump government on tariff matters, which could lead to an intensification of the trade war between the Americans and the European bloc, since «…if the American sanctions are maintained and we do not reach an agreement, the EU must prepare to respond with sanctions«, according to the French Finance Minister45.
Middle East
On August 13, it was announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, with the declaration signed in Washington by the Israeli Prime Minister, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the U.S. President, who takes credit for the so-called «total normalization of relations» between the two Middle Eastern countries, which has direct political implications at regional level.
Within this framework, Prime Minister Netanyahu reported that his unilateral plan to declare46 Israeli sovereignty over West Bank territories –which implies the annexation of Palestinian territories–, is temporarily suspended. Palestine considers this agreement as an act of «betrayal» by the UAE and has responded47by withdrawing its ambassador to the Emirates, while requesting an emergency meeting of the Arab League. Turkey and Iran criticize the agreement, while Oman and Bahrain welcome it. This political development makes the UAE the third Arab country –after Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994)– to establish links with Israel. This agreement will have consequences for the region, since it moves away once more from the «two-state solution” on which international diplomatic action has been based, paving the way for the development of actions that could affect peace in the region, the economy and the international oil market.
United States
According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)48, based on IHS Markit analysis, macroeconomic forecasts point to a 6.1% drop in the country’s GDP during the first half of 2020, (down from 8.2% calculated in July’s STEO), with a recovery in the third quarter and 2021. Similarly, the U.S. agency has recalculated its estimates regarding the country’s GDP growth for next year, placing the increase at 3.7% and not 5.1%, as it had predicted in its previous report.
Revenue data for July, according to the Congressional Budget Office49, show a deficit of $61 billion, due to the government’s spending of $624 billion in July. However, the July data represents an improvement over the previous month50, when the deficit was $865 billion due to the massive use of resources for the government’s first aid package. Estimates51 of the total budget deficit for 2020 stand at $2.81 trillion, more than double the existing record set during the Obama presidency52.
As for unemployment, the Department of Labor’s report53released this week shows that the number of applications for aid fell from 1,191,000 on August 1st to 963,000 on August 8, with a reduction of 228,000 applications; these figures place the number of unemployed people below one million for the first time since March 14, representing an unemployment rate of 11.1%.
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (MARCH-AUGUST 2020)
Source: Department of Labor, USA.
The U.S. economy continues to deteriorate at all rates despite the injection of economic and financial resources approved by both the White House and Congress, as well as by the Federal Reserve (Fed), earmarked54 for an unprecedented $5 trillion stimulus package ($3 trillion in aid, including $500 billion in loans to large corporations, and $2 trillion in stocks between March and June) to alleviate the effects of COVID-19 on the country’s economy.
Such an amount of monetary resources is generating collateral phenomena in the economy, such as inflation and the devaluation of the dollar, which directly affect the oil market, since its transactions are mostly carried out using the U.S. currency.
IMPACT OF INFLATION AND DEVALUATION OF THE U.S. DOLLAR ON THE VALUE OF THE OPEC BASKET (Base June 2001=100)
SOURCE: OPEC MOMR August
In July, the dollar lost its value against most of the major currencies of the industrialized economies and large oil importers: U.S. dollar lost 2% of its value to the Euro, 1.1% against the Chinese Yuan, and 1.0% against the Indian Rupee.
Thus, in nominal terms the OPEC basket reached $43.42 per barrel in July, but in real terms, taking into account the effect of inflation and dollar devaluation, its value was $27.81 per barrel.
Inflation in the U.S. remains high, with a 0.6% increase55 in July (up from 0.1% in May, the lowest level in four and a half years), due to demand stimulated by states’ reopening.
U.S. INFLATION DURING THE PANDEMIC
Source: Bloomberg
According to the EIA’s STEO, the inflation forecast points upwards. Likewise, the behavior of markets such as gold –whose prices have been rising steadily since March– or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities/TIPS (which have become attractive to investors), may suggest that investors are turning to safe and stable values because there is an expectation of moderate inflation (although without leaving the control of the Fed) or because it is thought that the economy may enter stagflation.
The STEO states that one partial result of the flexibility measures taken so far by the U.S. government and the Fed in monetary policy is the increase in market expectations about inflation, which we have referred to in our Oil Report. However, inflation has not reached the 2% target set by the Fed, which is necessary to raise interest rates to figures higher than the 0% currently held by the Federal Reserve.
With this forced support of the U.S. economy comes the conjunction of rising inflation (regardless of whether the Fed’s targets are met or not) and consistently high unemployment. As a result, the Misery Index56 is rising. By 1975, the Misery Index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment, reached 19.9% and peaked at 22% in 1980.
EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. MISERY INDEX (1970-2019)
Source: Bloomberg.
After the impact caused by COVID-19, this index of economic and social costs in the U.S. stands at 11.20%. Even if the economy and the financial markets experience situations of recovery –whether temporary or definitive, once the pandemic is brought under control– the levels of unemployment and the rate of inflation will remain high in the short term, so that a large part of the U.S. population will have to face, in 2020, a Misery Index that may be the highest in almost nine years.
U.S. MISERY INDEX (2010-2020)
Source: Bloomberg
DEMAND
OPEC estimates
OPEC updated its estimates regarding the demand for crude oil at the global level, predicting an increase of almost 9 million barrels of oil per day for the third quarter of the year, in the midst of new consumption behavior, which depends on the variable that represents the COVID-19 pandemic and the validity or expiration of the fiscal stimuli, monetary policies and labor subsidies that each country or region may present.
According to OPEC, demand will tend to recover the remainder of 2020 and in 2021. The Organization warns that uncertainty in job stability may become a factor preventing the achievement of the demand levels registered in 2019.
In its monthly report57, issued on August 12, OPEC indicates that for the third quarter of 2020 the demand for oil will be 92.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 10.26 million barrels per day with respect to the second quarter of the year, with a recovery trend for the second half of the year, when OPEC estimates that the COVID-19 virus will be controlled, which would avoid the interruptions of the economies in the world.
The year-on-year numbers of world oil demand fell every month this year 2020 until they reached 18 million barrels a day below 2019 demand; in such scenario, OPEC expects global production to stabilize at 90.62 million barrels a day in 2020, a year-on-year decline of 9 million barrels of oil a day.
Regarding the demand forecast for 2021, the report revealed no change, so OPEC continues to estimate an increase of 7 million barrels per day over the 2020 projection, to reach 97.6 million barrels per day. The report points out that there may be a trade-off between lower demand in non-OECD countries and better-than-expected demand in the OECD nations of Europe.
WORLD OIL DEMAND PROJECTION (2020 – 2021)
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020
According to OPEC, the OECD countries account for about 47% of world oil demand, a ratio that has remained unchanged in 2019 and in 2020, despite the contraction in the economies of the group’s member countries since March this year. The OECD, like OPEC, believes that if COVID-19 infections can be controlled at current levels, their economies will not be disrupted and consumption may exceed current predictions.
However, OPEC also takes into account variables that may limit demand growth, such as persistent fuel gains, the continuation of oil displacement programs and the elimination of labor market subsidies.
The OPEC assures in its report that the fuel used to mobilize the aeronautical industry will have difficulty in recovering the losses of 2020 in terms of demand, due to the lack of confidence in air mobilization, in addition to the implementation of dynamics associated with teleworking and teleconferencing, which minimize the need for transfers whether for work, business or study.
For their part, economists from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the group that brings together most of the world’s airlines, said58 that the high rate of contagion in the U.S. puts at risk the recovery of travel, whose fall in 2020 is estimated at 36%, and could worsen and fall to 53%, if air mobility restrictions are maintained in the U.S. and other emerging economies.
The European Union confirmed on Wednesday, August 12, that it is maintaining its ban on the entry of people from the United States and other countries with high levels of coronavirus infection –by not including them on the list of 15 countries authorized to make non-essential trips to EU territory. This will cause a loss of at least 29 billion dollars a year, as a result of the interruption of these travel operations.
MOST INFLUENTIAL AIRLINES WITH FLIGHTS FROM THE U.S. TO EUROPE
Source: Official Aviation Guide of the Airways (OAG)
EIA and IEA estimates
The results and estimates of demand behavior provided by the EIA, in its August STEO report59, reflect a drop of 8 million barrels per day for 2020 oil demand, and a recovery in 2021 to 2019 levels.
The EIA reported that world oil demand in July was 93.4 million barrels of oil per day (a year-on-year drop of 8.7%), with an average estimate of 93.1 million barrels of oil per day in 2020, while forecasting demand of 100.1 million barrels of oil per day by 2021, a million barrels of oil per day less than in 2019. This is a projection into the future for the encouragement of private oil companies.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its August60 report, reduced its estimates of oil demand for the remainder of 2020 and for next year, due to stagnation in mobility as a result of the high number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the implications of this situation for the weakening of air transport for passengers and cargo, both because of the application of restrictions on mobility and because of the economic crisis affecting trade.
In its monthly report, the multilateral agency adjusted downwards all forecasts regarding the demand for oil in the coming year, especially for the second quarter of 2021. Although July is usually a peak month in terms of air transport mobility in relation to the start of the northern summer, air traffic was two thirds below last year’s average for the same period.
The IEA puts global demand for oil in 2020 at 95.25 million barrels per day, so it estimates a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day in demand for the last two quarters of this year. At the same time, it expects that the production that had been withdrawn from the market by the USA and Canada –due to the oil price crisis and the low profitability of operations under such conditions– will be reactivated in the next two quarters of the year, which would generate an increase of more than 500 thousand barrels per day of oil in the supply of non-OPEC countries in the second half of 2020.
As for the estimations for next year, the IEA estimates that demand will be at 97.1 million barrels per day, identifying low demand for air traffic fuel as the main weakness for its recovery.
ESTIMATED REDUCTION IN DEMAND FOR OIL (THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER 2020)
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
High uncertainty persists regarding global oil demand
Regarding the uncertainties and risks surrounding global oil demand, OPEC crossed its oil product demand projection data for 2021 with that of six other sources in the oil sector, in order to place the level between the highest and lowest estimates within the range of uncertainty in demand by region, which yielded an average of 2.9 million barrels of oil per day. This figure, which represents 46% of the increase in world oil demand projected by OPEC for 2021, supports the caution with which the behavior and recovery of oil demand in 2021 is being developed.
The average increase in demand of 2.9 million barrels of oil per day by 2021 is impacted by uncertainty regarding economic recovery in those countries and regions where the demand for oil will grow for the next year, such as the U.S., China and the European countries.
Doubts about recovery are evident, beyond the projections that can be made for 2021, in the various restrictions on health prevention, which have affected mobility since March.
OPEC and the different data sources of the oil sector divulge information that allows the producing countries to be alert and ready for an economic rebound in 2021, which would affect the behavior in the consumption of the large economies that represent 62% of the world demand for oil (USA, European countries, China, rest of Asia and India).
These expectations and projections are crossed through transversally by the behavior of the COVID-19 variable, and will be maintained until a global health solution allowing people to live with the virus without any risk is achieved.
FORECAST OF OIL DEMAND AVERAGE GROWTH (BY REGION; YEAR 2021)
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020
Despite the disparity of criteria regarding the uncertainties in demand and the elements that determine it, the OPEC report has points in common with the analysis and predictions made for the coming year by different organizations that report energy data.
These variables, which are shared by the studies of multilateral institutions and organizations, including OPEC, are: solid GDP growth in all sectors; more appropriate management of COVID-19; no significant stagnation of economic activity; a very low statistical base (generated by the unprecedented drop in demand in 2020) that will make it possible to estimate significant demand growth in 2021, and pressures and efforts to recover lost demand in the aviation fuel and gasoline sector, within the context of new dynamics that include reduced travel and teleworking.
High unemployment rates, the recovery of household income and the reactivation of the industrial and manufacturing sector will also be variables that will influence the behavior of demand for the second half of 2020 and 2021.
GDP GROWTH AND RISING GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020
China
The OPEC report refers to developments in Chinese oil demand for the first quarters of the year, including the recovery in demand for crude oil and other economic indicators in June, with expectations for the short term based on the steady speed of economic recovery and local fuel consumption, at a rate that will be faster than that of its neighbors and of the large global economies.
Throughout the crisis of the collapse of the oil market, China has been acquiring cheap oil to store in its strategic and commercial reserves, which is why the country reached records of oil imports during the first and second quarter of the year. However, operators expect this situation to change as of August, since there have been restrictions and «bottlenecks» in the handling of the unloading, storage, and transportation of large volumes of imported crude oil.
As we have pointed out in previous Oil Reports, different sources mentioned61 that at least 80 tankers have been off the coast of China waiting to unload for more than a month, due to the high levels of storage and the lack of space to store the crude oil. This situation highlights one of the challenges this nation faces in terms of stimulating demand and reducing storage overload.
India
The MOMR notes that despite the growing number of COVID-19 infections in India, demand showed signs of recovery in June, when compared to May. The same impression is expressed by IHS Markit on August 5, when the consulting firm stated that even though consumption and demand were affected in the first quarters of 2020, in July the Indian oil imports totaled 5.14 MBD, an 82% increase compared to June, and 23% year-on-year; also, the average oil imports for June and July were marginally lower than 4 MBD, which is close to normal activity levels. The country’s Petroleum Minister estimates that fuel demand in India will rebound to pre-crisis levels by the end of September.
Europe
Data from the OPEC’s MOMR for European nations with OECD membership refer to the sharp drop in demand in May 2020, with emphasis on reduced oil demand by the four largest consumers: UK, France, Italy, and Germany, due to lower requirements for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline as a result of containment measures in the region.
According to the report, no further containment and shutdown measures are expected to affect the European economy in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the EU aid package and the current stimulus measures are seen as making a positive contribution to recovery in the rest of 2020 and during 2021.
For its part, the recent IEA report mentions that July’s mobility data shows fuel demand below seasonal figures in Europe, although it suggests an upward trend in the region’s recovery.
USA
Oil imports into the U.S. fell62 to 5.6 million barrels a day on August 7, resuming the downward trend it showed in July63. Despite the fact that U.S. refineries continue to increase their activities, reaching 80% of their capacity this week, high storage levels will continue to limit oil imports.
Currently, the average of oil imports over the last four weeks is 5.6 million barrels per day, a reduction of 25% compared to the same period in 2019.
The EIA’s STEO forecasts that oil and other liquid fuel consumption will average 18.5 million barrels per day in 2020 and 20 million barrels per day next year, adjusting these forecasts upwards by 120,000 barrels per day for its 2020 projection and 90,000 barrels per day for its 2021 projection.
On the other hand, the report of this U.S. agency increases its forecasts for the consumption of gasoline, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and distilled products; such rise is motivated by the projected increases in both the GDP for 2020 and the employment levels for 2020 and 2021, as well as by the growth of the petrochemical industry and the consumption of ethane in the country in 2020 and 2021.
STORAGE
The current increase in oil inventories in OECD countries continues, and this trend is reflected in recent OPEC and EIA reports. In the case of the monthly EIA report, it is indicated64an increase in OECD countries’ inventories of 3.9 million barrels per day, for a total of 118 million barrels of inventory in June. At the end of the first quarter, inventories reached 13 million barrels per day.
However, storage levels will be progressively reduced; according to EIA data, they will exceed 80 days of coverage in 2020, to fall to approximately 65 days of coverage in 2021.
OECD INVENTORY PROJECTION
Source: EIA’s STEO
On the other hand, OPEC estimates that, according to preliminary data, OECD inventories increased65 for the fourth consecutive month, with 24.3 million barrels more in June. Average inventories increased by 12.8 million barrels over the last fortnightly average, to a total of 1.607 million barrels per day.
OECD COMMERCIAL INVENTORIES
Source: Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC.
As for the days of coverage of the inventories in the OECD countries, there is an increase of 6% in relation to May, for a total of 73.40 days of coverage, which represents a surplus of 20% in relation to the levels of storage for the same period in 2019.
The construction of the inventories is above the average of the last five years, although it presents variations according to the region of the OECD countries and the time in which the data is determined. In this regard, OPEC highlights that the most significant increase in June was that of the U.S., while Europe and Asia showed a decrease of 0.5 and 4.9 million barrels per day, respectively. In July, U.S. commercial inventories showed a reduction of nine million barrels, according to preliminary data in the OPEC report.
Since June demand has been outstripping supply, as OPEC and its partners push for production cuts in the face of price recovery, so oil inventories should be reduced by four million barrels per day for the last four months of the year, according to a Bloomberg news agency analysis.
USA
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fall for the third consecutive week; the EIA reported66 as of August 12 that storage fell 1% from what was reported on July 6.
Excluding strategic reserves, the volume of inventories stands at 514.1 million barrels. The reduction was mainly seen on the East Coast (PADD 1) and the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), which fell by 9% and 2%, respectively.
OIL STORAGE UNITED STATES 2019-2020
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The EIA estimates that inventories will begin to fall by the end of the second half of 2020, for an annual average of 483 million barrels per day, and projects a reduction by 2021 and an average of 469 million barrels per day.
In this context, Cushing, Oklahoma, has been where the largest increase in commercial oil inventories was reported, with 142.4 million barrels per day, a 2% increase over the August 6 week. This region includes the strategic oil reserves, although the increase is basically of the commercial reserves. On the other hand, the strategic reserves register a slight decrease the week of 0.34% regarding the previous week, to 653.8 million barrels.
U.S. coverage days fell again67 this week to 35.4 days, a drop of 1.4% from the previous week. Inventories are currently 10 days above 2019 levels.
DAYS OF OIL COVERAGE IN THE U.S. 2018-2020
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The crude oil inventory in the U.S., including strategic reserves, reaches a storage volume of 1,167 million barrels per day.
VENEZUELA
Some considerations on the handling of production figures
In order to correctly analyze OPEC’s estimates of oil production in Venezuela, it is essential to understand the origin of the data that is used for this purpose.
In 1998, at Venezuela’s request, OPEC chose six secondary sources to serve as a basis for discussion and decision-making in the quota system; also OPEC decided not to take into account the official figures of the respective governments. Therefore, member countries’ compliance with the cuts or increases decided upon at OPEC would be based on the data provided by these secondary sources, including the International Energy Agency.
Those were moments of attacks on the heart of OPEC, a weakened and divided organization; it was when Venezuela raised the argument that «the OPEC is a club of Pinocchios» (a quip made by a then-Oil Minister); it was the peak in the country of the so-called “Apertura Petrolera” (“Oil Opening”, the de facto liberalization and privatization of the oil sector in the 90’s).
During the period of the “Apertura” in Venezuela, the argument was made that the production from the “mejoradores” (improvers or upgraders) of crude oil in the Orinoco Oil Belt could not be reflected as part of oil production, with the pretext that it was «synthetic oil». A similar argument was made regarding Orimulsion production, which was claimed not to be oil, but «bitumen». Both arguments were central to the volumetric policy being developed in the country within the framework of the Oil Opening, which resulted in the violation of OPEC quota agreements and the subsequent weakening of oil prices.
It is from this period that OPEC reflects the production figures as coming from both «direct sources«, issued by the countries’ official authorities, and «secondary sources«, issued by the international agencies.
In Venezuela, between 2002 and 2004, once the Oil Opening was put aside and the policy of “Plena Soberanía Petrolera” (“Full Oil Sovereignty”) was initiated68, the close collaboration within OPEC was reestablished, as well as the commitment to defend the price of oil. In this context, the information on oil production –sent to OPEC by direct communication– was done through the Ministry of Petroleum, was supervised by State institutions, and was also certified by international firms with a very high reputation for financial audits, so there was no need to resort to «secondary sources«.
However, since the international agencies, especially the IEA, are committed to volumetric policies to the detriment of price defense, the «secondary sources» insisted on making invisible the Venezuelan oil production figures, those corresponding to Orimulsion and the improved crude oil from the Orinoco Oil Belt. For that reason, the figures they issued differed by 600 thousand barrels a day, below those issued directly by the Ministry of Oil to OPEC. In other words, the agencies considered as «secondary sources» persisted on not recognizing either Orimulsion or the improved crude of the Belt as oil.
For that same period, given the disparity between the different sources of production reporting to OPEC, the institutions responsible in Venezuela for the administration and control of public finances imposed strict control and monitoring of oil production and exports, which must coincide with the royalties that were reported and verified by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Venezuela on a weekly basis –there was no way to hide the figures– since the oil industry was the main source of foreign currency, representing 96% of the nation’s income.
Another additional fact to emphasize is that the figures handled by OPEC do not include the production of condensates, which is extra light oil that does not fall under the OPEC quotas, although the procedure for condensates’ extraction is the same as for any other variety of crude; therefore, to the direct information issued by the Ministry of Oil for the period 2002-2014, it would have to be added between 176 and 150 thousand additional barrels of oil, corresponding to condensates.
At that time, for political reasons, news agencies and national and international media would take as a reference the data coming from «secondary sources«, which were always below the direct communication figures; they did so as a way of ignoring the price defense policy and favoring the volumetric policy of the so-called “Oil Opening”.
However, as of 2015, the new authorities heading both the Venezuelan Ministry of Petroleum and PDVSA stopped issuing public information regarding the sector’s performance; the government did not publish any more figures regarding national accounts, and the mechanisms of supervision and control, such as the office of the Ministry of Petroleum in Vienna, were dismantled. In consequence, there is no truthful information regarding the country’s oil production now, and it is even less possible to verify the liquidated royalties or the income in foreign currency into the National Treasury.
On the other hand, nowadays the production of improved crude oil is non-existent in the country, due to the operational collapse of the oil improvers located in the Jose Complex (in Anzoátegui State, northeast of the country), so the production of the Orinoco Oil Belt –which was the object of the difference disputed with the «secondary sources«– does not make a great difference, since it is not produced. The little oil currently produced in the Orinoco Oil Belt, whose production fell from 1.3 million barrels a day in 2013 to 180,000 barrels a day at present time, is marketed as a blend and as DECOM (crude oil with naphtha), so now the «secondary sources» became the closest thing to reality, and are also the only source of information in the absence of verification mechanisms of the country’s official information source. That is why, for the analyses and evaluations made regarding Venezuela’s oil production in this Oil Report, we use the «secondary sources» as data.
Venezuela according to the MOMR
According to the latest report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, published69 last August 12, Venezuelan oil production continues to stagnate, as a result of the loss of operational capacity of the state oil company and the government’s mismanagement of the sector. The cuts agreed by OPEC+ last April had no impact on the drop in the country’s production, since Venezuela is not a signatory to OPEC+ agreements.
The OPEC report puts Venezuela’s production for July at 339,000 barrels of oil per day, based on information obtained from secondary sources. This figure shows a decrease of 20 thousand barrels in relation to what was published in the MOMR in July70, and is 285 thousand barrels less if compared to the beginning of the crisis in April, when national production, already reduced, reached 624 thousand barrels of oil per day.
OPEP COUNTRIESPRODUCTION (2018-JULY 2020)
Source: OPEC’s MOMR
At current production levels, Venezuela has lost 2.67 million barrels of oil production capacity since 2014, the 88% of production, from the 3.015 million barrels per day of production in December 2013. The country has fallen back 80 years to production levels in 1930.
HISTORICAL VENEZUELAN OIL PRODUCTION (1922-2020)
Source: Baptista (2002); PDVSA; Own Elaboration
Within OPEC, of which Venezuela is a Founding Member, the country’s role is now practically irrelevant, not only because the last ministers who have represented the nation have neither the knowledge nor the political weight they used to have within the organization, but also because in terms of production, Venezuela has fallen from 4th place as a producer in 2008 to 9th place at present time, only above Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, countries of recent membership.
PRODUCTION OF OPEC COUNTRIES (JULY 2020)
Source: Own preparation with data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of August 12, 2020.
It is worth noting that in the August report, OPEC adjusts downward the production reported in June for Venezuela, which was recorded at 356,000 barrels per day. However, this month shows a downward adjustment of -6%, for a production in June of 336,000 barrels per day; that is, 20,000 fewer barrels per day–a figure that directly reflects the drainage of inventories currently being produced.
VENEZUELA’S OIL OUTPUT (JANUARY – JULY 2020)
Source: Own elaboration; data from secondary sources published in the OPEC MOMR.
The decrease in production in Venezuela from April –when the oil price crisis occurred– to date represents a drop of 54.5%, which is more than half of its production in 2020, continuing the trend of operational collapse that began in 2015.
Oil Spill Continues to Expand Off Venezuelan Coast
In our Oil Report last week, we denounced the oil spill off the coast of Falcón State, which was caused by some failure or breakdown in crude oil or hydrocarbon storage and drainage systems at El Palito Refinery, located in Puerto Cabello (Carabobo State).
No PDVSA authority has declared to the public about the origin of this serious environmental incident, nor has anyone acted in accordance with the protocol established for this type of incident, which calls for detecting and repairing the failure while also deploying all resources and equipment for spill containment and environmental remediation activities. None of the authorities responsible for the incident have addressed the country with explanations, in violation of the Environmental Criminal Law.
However, groups of scientists and communities surrounding the place where the oil spill happened have deployed their scarce resources in an effort to contain the spread of the spill, which now affects the Morrocoy National Park, home to an important variety of marine flora and fauna.
The geographic area of the national park affected by the spill also includes the CuareWildlife Refuge, which was declared a protected area in 1972 and has been under the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance (RAMSDAR) since 1988; this zone hosts at least 300 species of birds, besides endangered reptiles and mammals.
The importance of the area lies in its species diversity: the areas affected by the spill are mating ecosystems for many marine species valued for human consumption, and which support both commercial and artisanal fishing on a family scale. In the cayos (keys) can be found mangrove ecosystems that sustain the richness of species are particularly vulnerable to oil spills.
This week, the situation has become more critical, according to the assessment of marine biologist and ecologist Eduardo Klein71, a researcher at the Remote Sensing Laboratory of Simón Bolívar University, who has compared the spread of the July 22 spill with satellite images72; the size of the spill’s oil slick suggests that there was about 25,000 barrels of oil in the waters off the Morón coast.
In the following radar image, biologist Klein shows the oil slick, which can be seen in front of El Palito Refinery and which extends 27 kilometers from the coast.
Through his Twitter account, Klein has documented the spread and course of the spill, which he calls «the tongue of death»; by July 26 this “tongue of death” occupied 260 square kilometers. Today the crude remains uncontrolled: kilometers of Gulf beach in Falcón State are stained with oil that has now reached Morrocoy National Park, an inlet of islets with reefs and mangroves–some 320 square kilometers now totally contaminated.
A week after the sea began to bring the oil remains to the coast, and the effects of the spill began to be seen, a teleconference was held between researchers, environmentalists and volunteers to take action. State oil company PDVSA, for its part, has yet to offer any statement in relation to this event.
A Country Out of Gas
We close our Oil Report by reporting that gasoline shortages are worsening throughout the country, as supplies of fuel imported73from Iran –whose arrival in Venezuela on May 25 was widely trumpeted in propaganda– have been depleted.
The current government and the PDVSA’s Intervention Board, as well as the authorities of the Ministry of Petroleum, have been unable to put the country’s refineries into operation. The refineries’ present operating capacity is just 10% of their processing capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day.
Despite countless announcements about an imminent revival of the refineries, they are still not producing the fuels the country needs. On the contrary, the oil workers, who are involved in a national mobilization plan to claim their economic and labor rights (rights that have been denied and ignored by the PDVSA authorities), reported countless accidents, including gas and hydrocarbon leaks, as a result of the authorities’ consecutive failed attempts to reactivate the Venezuelan refineries. This proves once again that PDVSA is in complete operational collapse and lacks direction.
On the other hand, U.S. authorities continue to act against agents or traders who try to introduce fuels into the country, which aggravates the national situation for the Venezuelan population, who is already subject to a severe state of confinement, a measure that the government has imposed since the beginning of March of this year in view of its impossibility of guaranteeing basic services to the population such as gas, electricity, and gasoline.
This week, we learned of a decision by Chinese energy giant PetroChina to liquidate a joint transport company with PDVSA that operated four large-capacity vessels74 acquired in 2012 as part of the company’s Operational Sovereignty Plan. In that moment, the Plan allowed PDVSA75to have a fleet of 81 tankers transporting oil and products, 54 of which were under the control of the State, which gave Venezuela the autonomy and capacity to manage more than 50% of our exports by 2013.
The joint venture that operated the VLCCs “Boyacá”, “Carabobo”, “Junín” and “Ayacucho” was dissolved by decision of the partners. Information from the news agencies indicates that the Chinese company kept the “Boyacá”, “Carabobo” and “Junín” vessels, and PDVSA kept the “Ayacucho” vessel, which was later transferred to a Russian operator and renamed «Máximo Gorky«. All these operations concerning valuable assets of the Venezuelan state continue to hand over, cede or sell such assets to private entities without following the country’s legal regulations or the procedures established by the national oil company.
PDVSA is still on the road to dismemberment, and the government continues to hand over strategic assets that belong to all Venezuelans –and which, paradoxically, constitute the only opportunity to solve the serious crisis the oil industry faces and the citizens suffer.
