WEEKLY OIL REPORT
Week of 14 to 21 September 2020

INDEX

• Price
• Production
• Economy
• Demand
• Storage
• Venezuela

PRICE

At the beginning of the week, prices closed down –compared to the closing of last week– when this Monday, September 21^st, at the close of the markets in Europe, the Brent was quoted at $41.06 a barrel and the WTI at $38.69 a barrel.

The week begins marked by the instability that has characterized the behavior of oil prices since the beginning of September, when they fell below $40 a barrel; then recovered their value at the end of last week, and today, Monday, they closed downwards again.

The month of September has been marked by the fall of the price and instability in its quotations, which remain below the ones set by the close of August.

During the first two weeks of September, prices fell in their quotes, from August 31^st to their lowest value on September 14^th, when the Brent and WTI were quoted at $39.78 and $36.76 per barrel, respectively, which are 15% and 16% less than their quotes of August 31^st. On Friday September 18^th, they were quoted¹at $43.35 and $41.25 per barrel, respectively  –which are 9% and 11% above their quotes²of September 14^th– and fell again by 6% and 7%, respectively, at the close of Monday September 21^st.Final del formulario

BRENT QUOTATION SINCE THE RELAXATION OF THE OPEP+ CUTS
(September 2020)

WTI QUOTATION SINCE THE RELAXATION OF THE OPEP+ CUTS
(September 2020)

This price instability is the market’s reaction to the relaxation of OPEC+ cuts, which came into effect since August 1^st, to the high level of inventories and to the uncertainty regarding the performance of the world economy, and to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The price rebound observed³as of Tuesday, September 15^th, occurred after the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) announced⁴the suspension of 27% of the offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico coast, due to the alarm caused by the passage of Hurricane Sally, which –according to the reports received by the BSEE⁵from operators– represented 567 thousand barrels a day less in production.

This rise in oil prices was underpinned by the statements made by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Salman bin Abdulaziz at the 22^ndmeeting of OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee⁶(JMMC) on September 17^th, when he reported 102% compliance with the OPEC+ agreements, reaffirmed the commitment of the Saudi kingdom to the strict compliance with the cuts, and called⁷on the countries that are lagging behind in non-compliance, including the United Arab Emirates, a strong Saudi ally in the Persian Gulf.

For its part, the OPEC Basket has also had the same unstable behavior during September; its price fell during the first two weeks of the month by 19%, compared to its price of $46.27 on August 31^st.

PRICE OF THE OPEP BASKET
(August-September 2020)

On Thursday, September 17^th, the OPEC Basket recovered⁸ its value and quoted at $42.07 per barrel, driven by the weather events in the Gulf of Mexico, the results of the JMMC meeting and the statements of the Saudi Minister, as well as by a sudden increase in the prices of Venezuelan Merey crude oil that in August increased 24.3% with respect to July. This rise happened because of the scarcity of heavy crude oil in the region, fundamentally due to the collapse of Venezuela’s production –which stands at only 340 thousand barrels per day in August– and to the fall in Mexico’s production.

Futures

Oil futures prices showed a sustained recovery between June and August, the period in which the highest prices were recorded since the beginning of the crisis in March, to the extent that the market perceived a stabilization of its fundamentals, especially due to the decrease of the over-supply that marked the first half of the year, and to the slow recovery of oil demand, after the historic fall of 30% in April, according to data published by the EIA on April 27, 2020.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE BEHAVIOR
(June-September 2020)

However, starting September, futures prices fell again (once the OPEC+ cuts were relaxed from August 1^st) just to recover by the end of last week, both movements occurred because of the drainage of inventories and the passage of Hurricane Sally through the Gulf of Mexico, as well as because of the statements of the Saudi Arabian Minister⁹, who, in the framework of the OPEC+ JMMC meeting, declared that it should not be ruled out that in the next OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting on October 15^th-19^th decisions will be taken on additional production cuts if demand does not recover as initially foreseen.

OPEC, in its August MOMR¹⁰, states that prices showed a deeper contango structure in August, in view of the uncertain outlook for the recovery of both the oil demand and the economy; a scenario of greater crude supply; the end of the summer season that influences the consumption of transportation fuels, and the beginning of scheduled maintenance stops of refineries, mainly in Asia and the Pacific.

PRODUCTION

World oil production increased in August by 2.5%, according to data published by OPEC, for a total of 84.86 million barrels of oil per day.

WORLD PRODUCTION AND OPEP
(January-August 2020)

Out of the 84.86 million barrels a day of world oil production in August, 24.05 million correspond to OPEC (28.34% of total world production), while the non-OPEC countries, signatories to the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), had a production of to 12.61 million barrels a day, equivalent to 14.86% of world production.

The whole OPEC+ group (23 signatory countries of the DoC) produces altogether 26.66 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to the 43.2% of the world’s oil production.

OPEC

According to the MOMR of September 14^th, the 24.05 million barrels of oil per day production of the OPEC countries in August represents an increase of 763 thousand barrels per day with respect to July, as a result of the loosening of the OPEC+ production cuts which, according to the results of the JMMC meeting of September 17^th, had a compliance of 102%.

The relaxation of the OPEC+ cuts should add an additional two million barrels to the market; out this amount, OPEC countries are entitled to 1.25 million barrels per day and non-OPEC countries that have signed the agreements are entitled to 750 thousand barrels per day.

From the increase corresponding to OPEC, it would be necessary to subtract the compensation oil volumes of the countries lagging behind in the cuts.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION ACCORDING
TO SECONDARY SOURCES
(August 2020)

The countries that contributed the most to the August production increase were Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Algeria, and Angola, for a total of 853 thousand barrels per day; while Iraq, Congo, and Gabon reduced their production by 113 thousand barrels per day, of which 100 thousand barrels correspond to Iraq.

The countries with the largest OPEC production capacity continue to be the Persian Gulf monarchies and Iraq, with a production of 17,537 million barrels per day, of which 8,892 million (that is, 50.7%) correspond to Saudi Arabia.

The production of this group of countries represents 72.93% of OPEC’s production; hence the de facto leadership that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies have in the organization.

Iran, Venezuela, and Libya –countries outside of the OPEC+ cutbacks agreement– continue to have serious production problems, contributing altogether with only 2.386 million barrels of production, of which 1.94 million barrels per day (the 81.3%) correspond to Iran.

The three non-OPEC countries that did not sign the OPEC+ cuts, namely, Iran, Libya and Venezuela, represent 9.92% of the total OPEC production.

In the cases of Venezuela and Libya, their contribution to OPEC production is only 0.46 million barrels per day, which is just 1.91%. Hence, the little or no impact these countries now have within the organization.

OPEC PRODUCTION
(July – August 2020)

OPEC+ Production Cuts

Despite the compliance¹¹with 102% of the OPEC+ production cut reported at the September 17^th JMMC meeting, August production data published by OPEC show the non-compliance of several countries with the production cut agreement, including major producers such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, as well as Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

On the other hand, Algeria, Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan fulfilled over 100% of their production cut quota.

PRODUCTION OF OPEC COUNTRIES, RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN
(July-August 2020)

At the meeting of the JMMC, it was agreed to extend until December compliance with the compensation mechanisms to which Nigeria, Angola, Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan committed after not complying with their assigned quota between May and July. Saudi Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman¹², before the video conference of the meeting, made it clear that «the compensation mechanism was not established to replace full compliance or to encourage non-compliance«.

United Arab Emirates, the «new laggard.»

In a truly unusual situation, the UAE, traditionally bound by production quotas agreed in OPEC, and a close ally of Saudi Arabia, entered the group of «laggard» countries by violating its production quota for the month of August.

The UAE’s production for August was 2.7 million barrels of oil per day, meeting 80% of its agreed cutback quota by presenting an overproduction of 115 thousand barrels of oil per day, according to data published by OPEC.

However, according to Bloomberg’s September 17^th data¹³, the monitoring of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf shows that the UAE shipped 2.9 million barrels a day in August, which would put the country’s overproduction at 350,000 barrels a day, lowering compliance with its quota to 40 percent.

TANKER TRACKING: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES EXPORTS INCREASE OVER PRODUCTION CUTS

For its part, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states in its monthly report¹⁴that the UAE’s overproduction was 520,000 barrels of oil per day, which would mean that the Emirates’  agreed quota for August would be met by just 10 percent.

In view of this, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman had already warned about the failure of tactics to hide overproduction, while alerting that these actions call into question the credibility and reputation of OPEC+. «Full compliance with the agreement is not an act of charity«, said¹⁵ bin Salman.

Following the JMMC ministerial meeting, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei excused, via Twitter, the increase in the Emirati production in August, claiming it was due to «peak summer electricity demand within the UAE, which required an increase in oil and gas production«¹⁶, while assuring that measures would be taken in October and November to compensate for overproduction, stating that his country «remains committed to the OPEC+ agreement«¹⁷; the UAE only acknowledges the data published by OPEC.

This situation coincides with the report published¹⁸on August 13^th by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADNOC Distribution), with the results of the first half of 2020; in that report they informed their shareholders that the dividend will increase by 7.5% for the rest of the year, while the dividend for the first half of 2020 will be paid in October of this year. At the same time, ADNOC Distribution assures that in 2021 the minimum dividend will consist of 75% of the profits distributed by 2022.

Since 2017, the UAE state oil company has been operating on the stock market, when¹⁹on November 26^th it placed 20% of the shares of its subsidiary ADNOC Distribution on the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange for a value of $2 billion, as part of the «Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2020» plan²⁰, which seeks to leave dependence on oil and adapt the tax regime to attract foreign investment.

ADNOC Distribution sold half of the placed shares (10% of its shares), and on September 14^th it completed²¹the privatization of 20% of the company with the sale of the remaining 10% on the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange, in order to improve liquidity in the shareholders’ dividend.

As we have pointed out in our previous Oil Reports, changes in the oil policies of countries are taking place within OPEC, under the pressure of the commercial interests of their national oil companies, partially privatized; as in the cases of Saudi Aramco and ADNOC Distribution, which assume commitments with their shareholders, which influences and modifies the political decisions of their countries, favoring a volumetric policy within OPEC.

It is a phenomenon that must be followed up and that was experienced by OPEC in the 1990s, when the privatization of oil production in Venezuela, during the so-called «apertura petrolera («oil opening»), had a decisive impact on the change in the country’s oil policy in those years (1990-1998), favoring a volumetric policy and weakening OPEC.

Iraq, Nigeria, Angola, and Kazakhstan

According to data from the September MOMR, Iraq added 152 thousand barrels to its production cut quota for August, complying with the agreement for the first time since the implementation of the OPEC+ cuts. In August, its allowed production quota was 3.8 million barrels per day, an agreed increase of 212 thousand barrels over the quota it had between May and July of this year.

Nigeria, according to OPEC data from August, shows its oil production at 13,000 barrels per day below its permitted production quota of 1.48 million barrels per day, meeting for the first time 100% of its cutback commitment.

According to the same report, Angola’s oil production was 39,000 barrels below its quota, which met 110% compliance with its OPEC+ production cut quota, and also met its July quota by 103%.

Kazakhstan, in August, produced 1.32 million barrels per day, according to OPEC; this is 77 thousand barrels per day below its production quota, meeting the OPEC+ cut agreement quota by more than 100% for the second month in a row.

Iran, the threat of new sanctions

When in July 2015 Germany, China, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia (the P5+1) reached an agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) that would allow monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program, and in January 2016 the sanctions imposed 10 years ago by the UN Security Council were lifted, Iran’s oil production -very much affected by the sanctions- reached 3.64 million barrels per day in May 2016, the fastest rate of increase since 2011.

IMPACT OF SANCTIONS ON IRAN’S OIL PRODUCTION
(2005-2020)

However, the exit of the United States from the JCPA in November 2018, and the reinstatement of unilateral sanctions against Iran in May 2019, negatively affected Iranian capacity to produce and export crude oil, so that its production began to decline; in October 2019 Iran was producing 2.1 million barrels per day. With the COVID-19 crisis, the fall in production was accentuated (March: 2.08 to August: 1.94 million barrels a day).

The United States failed in its mid-August attempt to have the sanctions against Iran within the framework of JCPA applied again by the UN Security Council; therefore, the U.S. Secretary of State announced that the U.S. was activating the 30-day mechanism to reinstate the sanctions against Iran that were lifted by the Council in 2015.

The presidency of the Security Council let the United States know that it would not take any action in the absence of consensus among the 15 members of the Council. The JCPA countries were quick to clarify that such activation could only be done by a member country of the nuclear agreement with Iran, a condition that the Americans no longer had.

However, on September 19, Secretary of State Pompeo declared on Twitter that, «virtually all UN sanctions on Iran have returned«, implying that his actions had been sufficient to impose Security Council sanctions on the Iranians, a claim that was rejected by the Russians, the Chinese and the European countries.

The European participants in the Plan, namely, Germany, France and the United Kingdom (the P3), issued a joint statement²²declaring that since the U.S. had withdrawn from the Plan of Action, it was no longer a participant in the agreement, and that its notification to the Council, and the decisions and actions based on it, «could not have any legal effect«.

Likewise, the UN Secretary General made it known that the organization will not support re-imposing the sanctions on Iran as requested by the U.S. «until it receives the green light from the Security Council«.

No agreement in Libya

On September 18^th, it was announced²³the outcome of a meeting in Sochi, Russia, between Ahmed Maiteeg, Deputy Prime Minister of the Fayez al-Sarraj government, and Khalid Haftar, son of the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Marshal Khalifa Haftar; a meeting that concluded with the signing of a document in which it was agreed the lifting of the blockade to the oil areas in the east of the country by Haftar forces, as well as the distribution of oil income, which would allow the North African country to resume its oil exports, affected by the blockade since the beginning of this year.

However, the media picked up on the position of the Prime Minister of the Fayer al-Sarraj government, who is «firmly» opposed²⁴to the signed agreement until the Russian «mercenary» forces fighting for Haftar leave the country.

In addition to this position of the Libyan Premier, on September 18^th, the President of the National Oil Corporation of Libya (NOC), Mustafa Sanallah, declared²⁵that the NOC was not part of the agreement with Haftar, alleging that the security of the personnel of the oil industry, and the expulsion of «foreign mercenaries» from the country, were included in the negotiations that the NOC was holding with the Presidential Council and with the international community.

The expectation of an agreement that permits the lifting of the blockade on the oil areas and installations of Libya, would allow the country to increase, in the short term, its current production of 106 thousand barrels a day to 300 thousand barrels a day of oil.

Russia

According to preliminary data published by OPEC, Russia’s production in August increased to 9.21 million barrels per day, which is 13% more than the previous month and slightly higher than the data published by the Ministry of Energy, which placed it at 9.06 million barrels per day. Even though the production quota increased by 500 thousand barrels in August, Russia showed an overproduction of 100 thousand barrels per day.

MONTHLY VARIATION OF RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION
(October 2018-December 2020)

USA

According to the weekly report²⁶of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the week ending September 11^th, U.S. production was 10.9 million barrels per day, and offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico recovered to its pre-Hurricane Laura levels. With regard to weekly production, this data indicates an increase of 900 thousand barrels per day with respect to September 4^th.

U.S. WEEKLY OIL PRODUCTION
(July 3^rd to September 11^th, 2020)

The U.S. Gulf Coast recorded two major weather events within 20 days. On August 25^th, Hurricane Laura brought a reduction in production of 1.56 million barrels per day²⁷. On September 15^th, Hurricane Sally made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. According to data reported²⁸on September 16^thby the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, personnel were evacuated from 119 offshore platforms, affecting 27.5% of the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore production, which generated a reduction of 567 thousand barrels a day in the area’s production.

REDUCTION IN U.S. PRODUCTION
DUE TO HURRICANE LAURA
(August 25 – September 8, 2020)

On September 9^th, the EIA estimated²⁹the U.S. production at 11.2 million barrels of oil per day for September, with a slight decrease for the rest of the year, close to 11 million barrels per day; an estimate that was affected by the passage of Hurricane Sally.

On the other hand, OPEC maintains its 2020 estimates for U.S. oil production at an average of 10.9 million barrels per day, and increases its forecast for 2021 by 230 thousand barrels per day, with an average of 11.48 million barrels per day.

OPEC’S PROJECTION OF THE
OIL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. (2018-2020)

US Drilling Activity

According to data from Baker Hughes³⁰, the number of active oil drills this week in the United States is 179, remaining stable with respect to the previous week. Seventy-five percent of the active drills are operating in shale oil basins, particularly in Permian, which implies that the trend towards stability in the exploitation of shale oil is maintained.

U.S. DRILLING ACTIVITY
(January 3^rd to September 11^th)

According to OPEC in its monthly report, the reduction of active drills during 2020 has reached 75% between January and September 4^th, with 557 inactive platforms in this period.

Mexico and Venezuela

Latin America has very low levels of heavy oil production, in particular  Mexico’s Maya and Venezuela’s Merey segregations; this has been reflected in a significant rise in heavy oil prices in the Atlantic basin, as the North American refining complex in the Gulf of Mexico is designed to process heavy and medium crudes.

Mexico and Venezuela –both countries with a centenary oil industry– are going through severe problems of different kinds that have caused the important fall of oil production and loss of their productive capacities, a situation that has been aggravated by the scenario of price collapse and destabilization of the oil market fundamentals since the beginning of this year.

MEXICO’S CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
(2019-2020)

In Mexico, the current drop in production is due to two factors: the depletion of the Cantarell field³¹, which was considered the second largest offshore field in the world and began exploitation in 1978, with a million barrels a day between 1981 and 2007 and peaking at 2 million barrels a day in 2003 and 2004, when the decline in production started; by the end of 2019, it was only 44 thousand barrels a day.

In 2013, the country approved the «Energy Reform» Plan³², changing Articles 25, 27 and 28 of the Mexican Constitution, putting an end to state control of all oil activities and initiating a policy of, «oil opening». Its promoters promised to attract massive foreign investment to the country and to increase oil production to 3.5 million barrels a day by 2025.

In September 2018, the then president-elect, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, presented³³data on the results of the «Energy Reform»; it showed that only 12% of private investment had been approved by 2015-2041. At the closing of 2018, Mexico’s production was 1.83 million barrels of oil per day.

As of November 2019, Mexico is experiencing an increase in production, based on President López Obrador’s plan to bring production up to 2.4 million barrels per day by 2024.

However, this increase was curtailed by the collapse of the oil price in March, dropping Mexican oil production by 127 thousand barrels per day, to 1.62 million barrels per day, as of August, 92.7% with respect to its March production.

Mexico has not participated in the DoC agreement or in OPEC+ production cuts since the country announced³⁴its decision to withdraw from them on June 5^th, 2020.

VENEZUELA’S CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
(2019-2020)

In the case of Venezuela, the national oil industry is going through the worst crisis in its 100-year history. As of 2014, the government began successive political interventions in PDVSA, which have led to the imprisonment of more than 100 company managers and the departure of more than 30,000 engineers and technicians. From year 2017 on, the company has been militarized.

The government has placed seven Boards of Directors, with people outside the sector, without any experience; it has also intervened in all administrative and hiring processes, paralyzing in a domino effect the operations of the company, thus causing its operational collapse.

This collapse is reflected in the drop in oil production from 3,015 million barrels per day in 2013 to 340 thousand barrels per day in August 2020, a loss of 2.67 million barrels per day of oil in 7 years, equivalent to 88.7% of production.

In January 2019 the country’s oil production was at 1.1 million barrels per day and has continued to fall until August 2020 to reach 340,000 barrels per day, a 69% drop in the country’s oil production in the space of 20 months.

Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, does not participate in OPEC+ cutbacks and has lost all weight or influence in OPEC decisions.

ECONOMY

COVID-19

On Monday, September 21^st, registered infections³⁵worldwide totaled 31,092 million people; deaths³⁶ rose to more than 961 thousand, and more than 21 million people have recovered³⁷.

The most affected country continues to be the United States³⁸, with more than 6.83 million infections and more than 199,000 deaths, followed by India³⁹, with 5.49 million cases and 87,882 deaths, and Brazil⁴⁰, with more than 4.55 million cases and more than 137,000 deaths. Russia has also exceeded one million infections, while Peru and Colombia exceed 769,000. Mexico and South Africa have more than 660,000 infections and Spain, in a «second wave» of the pandemic, has accumulated more than 671,000 cases with more than 30,000 deaths.

COVID-19 Vaccine

In the United States, Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, reported⁴¹ to the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday, September 16^th, that the COVID-19 vaccine would only be available to the general public from late second or third quarter of 2021.

However, on the same day, President Trump noted⁴² that Dr. Redfield was «confused,» that he misunderstood the question, and made a mistake in answering; Trump said⁴³ he hoped the government would be able to distribute a vaccine «sometime in October» and that it would «be more beneficial than the mask«.

On the other hand, Oxford University reported⁴⁴that neurological symptoms and other ailments suffered by volunteers participating in the AstraZeneca and Oxford University study could not be linked to the vaccine; testing was restarted in Brazil, South Africa and Great Britain.

As for the Russian vaccine, the Direct Investment Fund announced⁴⁵ that it will supply the Indian pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy Laboratories with 100 million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine, and that it had «…reached agreements with Indian manufacturers to produce 300 million vaccines in India«.

China, for its part, made it known, through the Head of Biosecurity at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, that «…the Chinese people could be receiving the vaccine by November or December.»

Global Economy for OPEC and OECD

OPEC’s MOMR report notes that they have revised downward their projections for global economic growth in 2020 to -4.1%, due to a slowdown in recovery, especially in emerging economies, because of the pandemic, the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimuli, and the economic situation prior to the coronavirus.

OPEC did not change its predictions for 2021; reports from August and September agree that growth for next year will be 4.7%, although growth forecasts depend on the development of the pandemic.

According to OPEC estimates, the countries with the highest growth rate for next year are China and India, with 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively; while Brazil and Russia are the countries with the lowest growth rate, 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively.

OPEC ECONOMIC FORECASTS
(2020-2021)

For its part, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its Economic Outlook Interim report, published⁴⁶on September 16^th, improves its estimates for the performance of the world economy, calculating a contraction of the world economy of -4.5% by 2020, with a forecast of growth in 2021 of 5%.

Europe

The OPEC report states that the economies of the European Union countries have shown different dynamics in these months, with positive numbers for Germany, France, and Italy, but not for Spain and other smaller countries impacted by the resurgence of COVID-19.

The report refers to the financial stimuli of several euro zone countries and the 750 billion euros granted by Brussels to support the recovery; as well as the policies of the European Central Bank «to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner«.

OPEC also foresees a drop in the Eurozone economy in the order of 7.7%, while year 2021 would be characterized by growth of up to 4.3%.

The OECD makes a similar calculation of a -7.9% decline by 2020 and a more optimistic view of recovery in 2021, with 5.1%.

On the other hand, according to the European Central Bank, this week the last loan issue will be made⁴⁷, with an interest rate around 1%; this is made with the purpose of increasing liquidity, which is estimated to exceed –for the first time ever– 3 billion Euros.

LIQUIDITY IN THE EURO ZONE
(September 2019- September 2020)

For the next few days, it is estimated that countries in the Euro Zone will carry out operations to sell public debt, including Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Italy.

The European Commission’s Plan: Towards a Green Economy in Europe?

The President of the European Commission, the German Ursula von der Leyen, in compliance with one of her campaign promises⁴⁸, proposed to the countries of the European Union (EU) on Wednesday, September 15^th, the Commission’s plan⁴⁹to «reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% [by] 2030, compared to 1990 levels,» with which the region would reach so-called «climate neutrality» by 2050.

For this 55% cut, the plan proposes to increase the contribution of renewable energies in the EU from 32% to 38-40%, while reducing the consumption of coal by 70% compared to 2015, of oil by more than 30% and of gas by more than 25%, considering that, according to the Commission, «…CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU⁵⁰«. The European Commission considers that «…the decarbonization of energy supply and demand is essential to achieve climate neutrality⁵¹«.

Although Von der Leyen presents the plan as feasible, at least six Eastern European countries –Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria– have already proposed «realistic» climate targets that take into account «the real social, economic, and environmental costs of transition⁵²”.

The Commission is going to present⁵³legislative proposals by June 2021, and the issue will be discussed in both the European Parliament and the Commission.

USA

OPEC reports that the fall in U.S. GDP in the second quarter was 31.7% and that the consumer confidence index fell in August, «most probably due to the lack of an agreement to continue social welfare payments” to the unemployed population.

However, the MOMR shows signs of progressive improvement in the country’s economy, with lower levels of falls in industrial activity, exports, and the labor market. This trend would point to a strong recovery in the third quarter of the year (20%) and if the forecasts of a 10% improvement in GDP in the fourth quarter materialize, the MOMR estimates that the U.S. GDP, for all of 2020, would have fallen by 5.1%, while the recovery of the economy in 2021, would have a positive GDP of 4.1%.

The OECD forecasts a 3.8% drop in GDP for the US economy by 2020, while by 2021 it agrees with OPEC’s estimate of 4.1% growth in GDP.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects⁵⁴  a GDP decline of 5.1% by 2020 and a growth of 4.1% by 2021.

On Wednesday, September 16^th, the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the regional presidents, put into practice⁵⁵ the strategy agreed upon in August to keep interest rates at almost zero and to continue purchasing large amounts of shares, with the aim of strengthening the labor market and achieving full employment, with inflation that may exceed 2% for a time.

The Fed «expects to maintain a flexible monetary policy position until maximum employment or an average inflation rate of 2% is reached«.

Unemployment in the U.S.

This week, unemployment claims have reached their lowest level since the pandemic began in the United States, with 860,000 claims⁵⁶. This figure represents 33,000 fewer people than the 893,000 of the previous week (a figure that was adjusted by the Department of Labor –DOL– from the previously defined 884,000), although it would have been higher if the methodology used by the DOL until two weeks ago were applied. Although the figure of 860,000 new unemployed is lower⁵⁷than the forecast of 875,000 people estimated by Dow Jones, it is still far from the 217,000 requests of January 2020, before the pandemic.

APPLICATIONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
ASSISTANCE IN THE U.S.
(March-September 2020)

According to the DOL report, the unemployment rate among the population eligible for benefits fell 0.7 to 8.6 percent, while the number of people who applied through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which targets those who would not normally apply for benefits, fell by more than 200,000 in the week ending September 12^th.

On the other hand, the total unemployment figure is 12.6 million people receiving the benefit for more than a week until September 5^th. This represents 916,000 people less than the previous weekly figure of 13 million 544 thousand; although these numbers represent a decrease from the April 2020 peaks, they are still higher than the figures prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

China

OPEC’s monthly report estimates China’s GDP growth for 2020 at 1.8%, with a growth projection of 6.9% for next year. The OECD⁵⁸ figures are the same for 2020 (1.8%) but higher for 2021 (8%).

One factor to take into account in the dynamics of the Chinese economy is its relationship with the United States, since a new situation has arisen due to the decision⁵⁹of the World Trade Organization, on Tuesday, September 15^th, to consider as violating WTO rules and inconsistent with international trade rules the tariffs imposed in 2018 by the Trump administration on goods estimated at more than 200 billion dollars.

Tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, due to the veto imposed⁶⁰by Washington on the TikTok and WeChat applications. In response, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on September 19^th, stating that the list of «unreliable» entities announced in May 2019 –which has not yet been published– could include U.S. individuals and companies that do not comply with the Asian country’s market rules, break agreements with Chinese companies, exercise discriminatory actions or infringe on its sovereignty.

DEMAND

The demand for oil continues to be the great unknown of the market, since it depends fundamentally on the possibilities and speed of recovery of the world economy, not only of the large industrialized consumers, but also of the emerging economies and the debt crisis that is announced as a consequence of the collapse of this year 2020.

The uncertainty about the possibilities of controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the short term is reinforced by the situations in the U.S. and India, and the «second wave» of contagion that has hit European countries. There is a lot of uncertainty about this, which keeps the world oil market depressed and its possibilities of recovery in the short term. Even some analysts, who are more pessimistic, estimate that the levels of demand prior to the pandemic will not be reached again, which, if true, would generate a significant readjustment in the oil market on the side of the producers.

World oil demand for 2020 is revised downwards in the September reports of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), to 90.2 and 91.2 million barrels, respectively; a drop of 2% from their August estimates.

For its part, the International Energy Administration reduced its estimates for demand in 2020 by 4% with respect to August, placing it at 93.1 million barrels per day.

CHANGES IN ESTIMATES OF WORLD OIL DEMAND (2020)

For 2021, the IEA cut its forecasts by 3.31%, and coincides with the demand estimated by OPEC, of 97 million barrels a day for 2021. The EIA adjusted its August projections for a demand of 99 million barrels a day in 2021.

WORLD OIL DEMAND PROJECTIONS (2021)

USA

According to the EIA in its weekly report⁶¹of September 16^th, oil imports in the US for September 11^th registered a total of 5.312 million barrels per day, which is 1.6% less than the previous week.

Projections for oil imports from this country, according to the EIA report, foresee an average of 3.29 million barrels per day in 2020, which is 16% less than 2019, and a subsequent recovery of 34% in 2021, with 5.01 million barrels per day.

IMPORT OF CRUDE OIL U.S.A.
(2014-2021)

Oil imports recovered from June 2020, after falling in February to the lowest level in the last 5 years. The upturn in imports in April (with 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, sent in a fleet of VLCC vessels to flood the market in the context of the price war with Russia) is reflected in imports in May and June, due to the 45-day journey from the Persian Gulf to the United States.

In view of the fall in demand –and with it, the collapse in prices– Saudi Arabia reversed the overproduction measures to implement the cuts in May, which was reflected in subsequent months for July and August, when imports fell by 75% and 38%, respectively.

As of September 11^th, the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report estimates that imports of Saudi origin fell 41% with respect to 2019, to 237,000 barrels per day (the lowest record since 1985).

According to data from the commodities research company ClipperData, the tankers en route to the U.S. estimate that imports from August could be reduced by up to 140 thousand barrels a day.

IMPORTS OF CRUDE IN THE U.S. FROM SAUDI ARABIA (July 2016 – July 2020)

At the end of the second quarter 2020, according to EIA data, U.S. imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day.

China

The demand for crude oil from China, the only large economy with positive growth⁶² for 2020, according to the OPEC MOMR, reached the highest level of hydrocarbon consumption for the year in July (12.9 million barrels per day), in particular industrial fuel, diesel, LPG, gasoline and jet fuel.

The import of cheap oil for storage during the first half of the year, which generated delays in Chinese ports in July and August due to the congestion of more than 80 vessels anchored for unloading, also influenced⁶³ the data on increased demand.

The OPEC report highlights that the country’s economy will continue on the same growth path for the rest of 2020, based on China’s low levels of COVID-19 contamination, government fiscal and monetary programs and increased industrial production, in addition to the drop in the producer price index, which stimulates the industrial sector and the raw materials market. With economic growth expected to reach 6.9% year-on-year by 2021, demand in China will be maintained and it will strengthen the Asian market.

India

The demand data in India is not optimistic, mainly because of the pressure that the pandemic has put on the country’s economy. On September 21^st, a number of 86,961 new cases were registered, reaching a figure of 5.49 million people infected, which has led to the intensification of restrictions on movement and business closures.

The demand for oil in the country decreased by 0.5 million barrels per day in July, as well as the consumption of diesel, jet fuel and kerosene, while only the demand for LPG increased due to its use in the kitchen.

The MOMR estimates that, for the remainder of 2020, demand will continue to be negatively affected by the monsoon season and the restrictive measures that the intensification of the pandemic may cause.

OIL DEMAND IN INDIA
(200-2020)

STORAGE

According to the IEA report⁶⁴of September 14^th, the crude oil inventories for the first semester in the countries belonging to the OECD are 3,225 million barrels; figures that coincide with the OPEC data, which reports 3,231 million barrels for the same period.

This storage level is 273 million barrels higher than the levels recorded in 2019, and is still at record levels, above the average of the last five years.

OIL INVENTORIES IN OECD COUNTRIES
(2015-2019)

Inventory drainage

The EIA, in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlooks (STEO) report⁶⁵ of September 9^th, indicates that the inventories of the OECD countries in August were at 3.12 billion barrels, 45 million barrels less than in July, but still 163 million more than in August 2019.

According to the EIA, the OECD inventories would have been reduced in August by 1.5 million barrels per day, and the regions with the largest drop in inventories for August would be the U.S., Europe and Japan.

On the other hand, the oil inventory in the U.S. fell 28% in August to a total of 1.1 million barrels. According to the monthly EIA report, the volume of commercial storage, as of September 11^th, fell (-1%) to 496 million barrels per day, mainly due to the weather events that caused production to stop on the Gulf of Mexico coast. In relation to the days of coverage it increased (+1%) for the same date to 36.2 days.

U.S. STORAGE
(2019 – 2021)

However, the IEA in its monthly report of September 16^th, considers that the slowdown in refining activities in China, India and the U.S. –the latter due to weather events this month–, as well as the weak demand for air fuel and ground transportation by the end of summer, and the refinery maintenance season before winter, all these elements will again put pressure on the recovery of crude oil inventories at the end of 2020.

Regarding to floating storage, the IEA shows a significant reduction in August, driven by the summer season, and records 168 million barrels, which is 59.9 million barrels less than in July. The Agency estimates that this trend will be reversed in September.

VENEZUELA

The political and economic situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate, plunging the country into a deep crisis from which no sector escapes.

On September 15^th, the Independent International Mission of the UN Commission on Human Rights published⁶⁷a devastating report on the violation of Human Rights in the country during the period 2014-2020, pointing out that president nicolás maduro and other high officials           –civilians and military– are responsible for the perpetration of crimes against humanity according to the Rome Statute, of which Venezuela is a signatory since 2000; the conclusion of this report opens the door to the action of the International Criminal Court.

On the other hand, the government is preparing for the parliamentary elections on December 6^th, making some gestures –such as the release of kidnapped/detainees– to convince those broad political sectors in the country that have refused to participate in the upcoming elections, because they see lack in conditions, verification and transparency.

At the same time, the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) has intervened in political parties⁶⁸opposed to the government, designating other party authorities while continuing to detain and disqualify political leaders. All this is happening while the U.S. administration continues to impose sanctions against the government and high officials.

A deeply destabilizing element in the country is the collapse of the national economy, with an accumulated fall of -64%, hyperinflation and mega devaluation and with the virtual dollarization of the economy, accompanied by the collapse of wages; today the monthly minimum wage stands at $1.99 per month.

To these elements must be added the collapse of public services: transport, electricity, water, telephone, gas and petrol. The latter are a direct consequence of the operational collapse of Petróleos de Venezuela, PDVSA.

The Collapse of the Oil Industry

A fundamental factor among the causes of the deep crisis is the collapse of the national oil industry, which represented 96% of the country’s foreign currency income until 2013.

As a result of president maduro’s intention to change the country’s oil policy (for which he had to remove from PDVSA the management body that ran the company during the previous government of President Chávez between 2004-2014), the current government advanced successive interventions in PDVSA until it achieved its control. In this process, a policy of persecution and internal repression was established, and more than 100 directors, managers and frontline workers of the company were imprisoned. President Chavez’s oil minister, Rafael Ramírez was exiled and persecuted, and another oil minister, Nelson Martínez (who was appointed in January 2017) was left to die in prison. In that year the company was finally militarized, handing over its leadership to officers of the National Guard, headed by General Manuel Quevedo. This whole process of persecution and militarization has caused the exodus of more than 30,000 workers, engineers and technicians from the company as of 2015.

At the same time the government has advanced a series of actions and signatures of oil contracts absolutely contrary to what is established in the Constitution, the Organic Law of Hydrocarbons in force and without the approval of the corresponding bodies, among them the National Assembly, in what has been a de facto privatization of PDVSA and of the oil activity in the country, without any favorable results –on the contrary, the operations of the industry and the production of oil and gas in the country have fallen to historically low levels, similar to those of year 1930.

The impact suffered by the company has been worse and more profound than that suffered by PDVSA between 2002-2003, when senior management, for political reasons, sabotaged the company’s operations and facilities to force the resignation of then President Hugo Chávez. At that time, production fell to 23,000 barrels per day of production, and all the country’s refineries were sabotaged, so that the population was subjected to a severe shortage of gasoline and gas between December 2002 and March 2003.

Today, after seven years of successive interventions, diversion of resources, suspension of processes and absence of investments, the country’s oil industry is collapsing, depriving the Venezuelan people of the resources from oil revenues and the fuels necessary for their daily activities.

The collapse of oil and gas production

According to the OPEC’s MOMR, published⁶⁹on September 14^th, oil production in Venezuela was 340,000 barrels per day in August, a slight variation of 0.29% with respect to the production recorded in the report for July, which was 339,000 barrels per day.

PRODUCTION OPP COUNTRIES
(2018-July 2020)

Since year 2014 Venezuela has progressively fallen in the ranking of producing countries that are part of OPEC, and is currently in ninth position, only above Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

POSITION OF THE OPEC COUNTRIES BY THEIR LEVEL OF PRODUCTION
(August 2020)

The loss, since 2014, of 88% of the oil production in Venezuela represents an economic cataclysm, because 96% of the State’s currencies come from oil exploitation.

Detailing the graph of the historical evolution of oil production in Venezuela by Professor Asdrúbal Baptista, it can be appreciated the resounding fall in the production of crude oil, which takes us back to the production levels of the 1930’s; a situation that for Venezuela is extremely serious for various reasons, among them the collapse of the national economy, the threats to the country’s sovereignty and the destruction of the model of Popular Distribution of Oil income achieved in the last 20 years.

EVOLUTION OF OIL PRODUCTION IN VENEZUELA
(1922-2020)

The collapse of production and its regression to levels of 90 years ago, as the graph shows, explains by itself the disaster of the government’s intervention and management in PDVSA in the period 2014-2020, in addition to the failure of the de facto privatization of the oil and gas production in the country.

The collapse of the oil industry creates a favorable scenario for the political and economic sectors, both from the opposition and the government, which encourage the privatization of the national oil industry, since the chaos created by maduro and the weakness of a surrendered government gives them the arguments and opportunities to advance in proposals for the privatization of PDVSA and of the delivery of oil. Two issues that –besides being unconstitutional–  would have been unthinkable only seven years ago with the government of President Chávez.

Refinery Situation

As we have indicated in previous Oil Reports, the installed capacity of refining in the country is robust, with a capacity to process and produce 1.3 million fuels in four main refining complexes: The Paraguaná Refining Complex (Amuay-Cardon refinery), El Palito refinery, Puerto La Cruz refinery, and Bajo Grande refinery.

Until 2014, the national refining circuit was able to guarantee the supply of fuel to the country and export. That same year, PDVSA processed in its national circuit 1.15 million barrels per day of oil to produce 638 barrels per day of fuels to satisfy the internal demand for fuel and 404 barrels per day of fuels were exported.

The deviation, as of 2014, of the financial resources destined for the maintenance and updating of these complex installations generated the current collapse, which was increased by improvisation, disqualification, and persecution of technicians and managers, as well as the militarization of the company, which ended any possibility of recovering the country’s refining park.

Today, after seven years of interventions, imprisonment of managers and workers, and the poor management by boards that are unaware of the sector, the Venezuelan refinery circuit is operationally collapsed.

According to various sources, including company workers, currently the processing capacity of the country’s refineries barely reaches 10% of their capacity, with high levels of insecurity and lack of operational reliability, which is why there are successive plant starts and stops, as well as gas leaks and hydrocarbon spills such as those in Río Seco⁷⁰ and in the Morrocoy National Park⁷¹, both in the state of Falcón, which have been denounced by the communities and have caused serious environmental damage.

The situation of the collapse of the national refining system has as its only precedent in the country, the sabotage to our oil industry between 2002-2003, when the management in charge of the refineries abruptly stopped the operations and sabotaged the facilities causing terrible damages to its mechanical integrity. This caused a total lack of fuel in the country between December 2002 and March 2003.

However, the damage caused to our refineries by the government’s negligence and irresponsibility between 2014-2020 has caused the operational collapse of the national refining system and a prolonged shortage of fuel, gasoline, diesel, and LPG in the country, which has kept the population of the national territory under scarcity throughout this year, even in Caracas, where the national government –as it was the case in Saigon during the Vietnam War– is trying to maintain a calm and normalcy that does not exist in the rest of the country.

On the other hand, PDVSA’s international refining circuit, which until 2014 had a production capacity of 1,519 million barrels per day, has been lost due to political reasons and the negligence of the government and the successive PDVSA’s Boards of Directors.

The CITGO refinery circuit was placed as a collateral⁷² for financing operations ordered by the National Executive. On the other hand, due to the negligence in the handling of international lawsuits brought against the Republic by paper mining companies, U.S. courts froze any possibility of transaction by the company, until finally the U.S. Administration confiscated these assets of the Venezuelan Republic and, in an absolutely unusual and illegal act in our country, handed over its administration to the political party of the current president of the National Assembly.

While the Caribbean refinery circuit, composed of the Cienfuegos Refinery in Cuba, Refidomsa in the Dominican Republic, Petrojam in Jamaica, and Isla in Curaçao, they are no longer under the control of the Venezuelan government.

In the case of Cuba the refinery was ceded to the Cuban government; in the case of the Dominican Republic and Jamaica it was neglected and its administration was handed over, and regarding the Isla Refinery in Curaçao, the lease was lost.

In the case of the Cienfuegos refinery, located in Havana, with a nominal capacity of 65 MBD, this was ceded⁷³ to the Cuban government as part of a «debt» compensation between Cuba and Venezuela, according to president maduro’s instructions, as indicated in the «punto de cuenta«, an official document in which then-Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez asks president maduro for the cession of this asset; maduro approved this request behind the country’s back and in secret.

In the cases of Refidomsa and Petrojam, neither the government nor PDVSA has informed the country how control of our participation in these refineries was lost.

With respect to the Isla Refinery, with a capacity of 335 thousand barrels per day, PDVSA lost control⁷⁴of its operations due to noncompliance with the lease agreement.

The lack of control in the mixed refining companies created outside the country; the liquidation of the Cienfuegos Refinery in Cuba; the loss of the lease contract in the Isla Refinery, and the deviation of financial resources corresponding to the maintenance and operation of the national refining circuit, liquidated and reduced Venezuela’s refining capacity.

Meanwhile, no government authority, nor PDVSA, has been made accountable to the state’s control bodies; neither to the National Assembly nor to the National Constituent Assembly, nor to the General Comptroller of the Republic, nor to the Prosecutor’s Office.

No one is accountable and no one calls the government to be accountable. This is one of the fundamental problems of the current situation.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan citizens throughout the country continue to be subjected to mistreatment due to fuel shortages, long queues for days to fill up with fuel, abuses by the authorities, theft and extortion, the black market, and the poaching of a resource that is not accessible to the population, not because of U.S. sanctions but because of the government’s inability to do so.

Mientras que el 80% de los hogares del país, que cocinan con GLP, hacen maromas para conseguir el preciado combustible, pues la producción de gas en el país, asociado a la producción petrolera, ha colapsado y las plantas criogénicas de extracción de Líquidos, en oriente y occidente, están paralizadas, así como las posibilidades de las refinerías de producir GLP, por lo que es insuficiente la producción de este combustible, lo que se traduce en  escasez para la población que se ha visto obligada, sobre todo en el interior del país, a cocinar con leña.

While 80% of the country’s households, which cook with LPG, work miracles to get the precious fuel because the production of gas in the country, associated with oil production, has collapsed and cryogenic plants for liquid extraction –in both the east and west of the country– are paralyzed, as well as the possibilities of refineries to produce LPG, so that the production of this fuel is insufficient, resulting in shortages for the population that has been forced, especially in the interior of the country, to cook with wood.

As we have argued in previous Oil Reports, the additives and components needed to produce high-octane gasoline are not only available on the open market but, in addition, countries like Cuba and Iran, which are truly blocked and sanctioned, yet meet the fuel needs of their population and even export.

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